Reversing the Trend: When Good Players Go Bad (and Then Maybe Become Good Again)

The fantasy football season is long, especially if you make the playoffs. I know, I know, that sounds like something that would come out of the mouth of Emmitt Smith, but bear with me for a minute here.

See, for probably half the teams in your league, the fantasy football season is already over. For the teams still in the hunt, though, the season is only just beginning.

Here’s what I mean: every team in the league likely has at least one bust on the roster. It usually involves a veteran player who was drafted high based on reputation and past performance. And while these busts seem like terrible albatrosses for their owners right now, the fact is that some will eventually emerge and will likely play a role in determining who advances to the championship game.

Back in 2002-2003, I won a fantasy league mostly thanks to Randy Moss’s 113-yard, 2 TD performance in Week 15. This doesn’t seem surprising at all in retrospect, but Moss actually had a terrible season in 2002. Before Week 15, Moss was averaging 78 yards and .38 TDs a game – numbers far below what he was expected to put up. Remember, this was the year that Moss ran over that traffic cop with his car.

So which highly-drafted stars will fall into the Randy Moss category this year? Let’s take a look at some that will – and won’t – reward you for your patience down the stretch.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT) I drafted Big Ben in Round 3 (hey, it’s a 2-QB league), and, to be honest, the results have been really disappointing. He continues to show flashes of brilliance on his deep throws to Nate Washington, but Ben is just throwing too many picks this year. If you look at Ben’s career, his seasons have a way of finishing how they started (good, really good, terrible, great), so the outlook isn’t good for the big kid from Ohio. Throw in the toughest schedule the NFL has seen since the era of Sammy Baugh and Y.A. Tittle and you have a guy who’s probably not going to come around before the season’s end. On the bright side, Mike Tomlin said that Ben reinjured his shoulder in the Giants game.

Ryan Grant (RB – GB) I shared my positive outlook on Grant in last week’s now infamous lists column, and my opinion hasn’t changed much. The biggest problem with Grant has been his hammy, and that has seemed to come around in recent weeks (Grant notched his first 100-yard game the week before the bye). When the throwing conditions in Lambeau start to worsen, look for the Pack to ride Grant, who showed last season during the playoffs that he’s a late-season performer.

Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow (CLE) As soon as the Browns are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and the pressure dissipates, look for this trio to start putting up major numbers. In a 1-QB league, it’s possible you’ll be able to find Anderson (or Brady Quinn) on the waiver wire. Edwards and Winslow are guys worth buying low on.

Plaxico Burress (WR – NYG) The malcontent from Michigan State only has 3 TDs on the year and hasn’t recorded a 100-yard game since Week 1. The Giants’ schedule doesn’t get much easier from here, but I think Plax is a guy who’s going come on down the stretch, provided the Giants don’t completely run away from the division. Burress is dying to get back at the coaching staff after all of those fines. What better way than a few big TDs followed by angry glares to the sideline?

Roy E. Williams (WR – DAL) Roy E. Biv’s longhorn salute after he scored a TD last week was nice, but I wouldn’t expect many more of them until Tony Romo comes back in November. As I said in last night’s podcast, though, I’m incredibly bullish on the Cowboys from a fantasy perspective; once #9 does return to action, I expect them to start lighting it up. Roy’s yardage totals will never be great because of all the weapons Dallas has on offense, but I can see him becoming a T.O. touchdown thief – and a solid #2 fantasy WR – by the end of the season.

Torry Holt (WR – STL) He’s got nowhere to go but up. I’m not sure how you can put this guy in your starting line-up until he shows some signs of life, but you should definitely keep him on your roster. The emergence of Donnie Avery should result in less double teams for the man formerly known as “Big Game.” If you’re planning a trade with an owner who has Holt, it’s worth seeing if you can get him involved in the trade as a throw-in.