Friday, October 24, 2008

Cox Block: My Response to the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

With the glaring exception of the senior management of our major investment banks, poor performance is not rewarded in our society. The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week is on the ropes, people, so we’ve decided to bring on Michael J. Cox, one of RGIOQB’s other resident gamblers, to bet the other side of every one of Marble’s picks – and write a few sentences about how happy he is to do so.

This week, the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week was the Bucs (+2.5) on the road against the Cowboys, so MJC will be forced to bet the Cowboys
(-2.5). Below, his feelings on the wager.

Any Joe Public who watched last week's games would have circled Bucs +2.5 over the Cowboys this week as a no-brainer. The Bucs looked so great at home against the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football last week that I was waiting for Cris Collinsworth to announce during the second half that he was pregnant with Jeff Garcia's baby and that they were planning a trip to Massachusetts during the bye week to make things official. Meanwhile, the Cowboys stunk out the joint on the road against a previously crappy but recently rejuvenated (yes, they're 2-0 under Haslett now) Rams team and Steven Jackson.

So it's no surprise that Marble's going in this direction. After all, he's Joe Public, the guy who gets routinely smoked by Vegas and then snuffed out in an ashtray at the McCarran Airport departure lounge.

I think there are three key differences between this Cowboys team and the Seahawks team that the Bucs trampled last week that you should take note of before considering such a wager:
  1. The Cowboys are at home.
  2. They don't employ Seneca Wallace and the worst collection of starting skill players in the NFL.
  3. Jason Garrett isn't spending timeouts on the phone with his financial advisor trying to find out if he's still good to retire at the end of the year (see Holmgren, Mike). He's got a game under his belt with Brad Johnson now and has seen the limitations. Expect an offensive adjustment.
What was lost on Collinsworth, though probably not on Al Michaels, was that despite how the Bucs dominated the game, the Seahawks covered. In fact, they were within a TD of Tampa Bay with less than 5 minutes to go in the game. Are the Bucs really the kind of team you want to stake your cash on to cover as a road favorite against an above average team?

No, it isn't, but that's how they build big shiny casinos out in the Nevada desert – with blood, sweat, and dollars from guys like Marble Ryan. I'll take cash or check my man.

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