The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

I must apologize. In week 6, I made the hands down worst NFL pick in recent memory. Aspects of my reasoning for the pick ranged from marginally stupid ("San Diego has always been soft") to entirely deficient of logic ("Matt Cassel will take another step forward"), and at no point in my argument did I make an intelligent observation or prediction. After Cassel's pitiful four and out inside the San Diego 5 during the 2nd quarter, it became clear to me that I had made statements without actually knowing what I was talking about.

Cassel's performance essentially mandated picking against the Pats for the remainder of the season, and solidified what I suppose we already knew about Tom Brady but were too jealous to admit:: the man is the most valuable resource in this lig. But I'm not here to talk about the Pats, and I especially don't want to waste any more of my life thinking about the wealth destroying infection that is Matt Cassel. Marble Ryan is about to get back on track, but it's going to take a little extra effort.

Maybe it's my shattered ego talking, but the lines this week don't look all that appetizing. It's hard to remember a year in the NFL when the bad teams were as bad as they've been in 2008. Four teams (Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, and Cincinnati) have a legitimate shot at winning less than 2 games this year in an almost comedic fashion on a week to week basis. Two additional teams (Seattle and St. Louis) are considerably more talented than the Big Four, but they’ve had a run of hard luck that suggests there are forces at work against them more powerful than anything they can conjure themselves. As tempting as it is to pick these six dogs to go down every week, this is the NFL after all. We can't expect teams to be blown off the field every time out even if Vegas does.

Luckily, there's a 7th team in my crosshairs that for some reason appears to be getting the benefit of the doubt from the line makers despite being quite hopeless: The Baltimore Ravens. After somehow starting the season with a couple of ugly wins, the Ravens have rattled off three straight losses in which they've looked progressively worse. Week 6 showed us that the decision to start Joe Flacco is catching up with them. Given two straight weeks of complete offensive ineptitude, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Ravens score more than 14 points in a game for the rest of the year.

Baltimore is headed to Miami this week. Even though you can still count on the Ravens defense to be studly every season, the Dolphins unique offensive blend of risk aversion and weird trickery seems like a good matchup against the hyper-aggressive, roided-out Ravens. I like Miami come away with a comfy win on the order of 14-6, easily covering the puny 2.5 point spread. It won't be pretty, but if you're getting paid, it aint ugly either.

The pick (home team in caps): MIAMI (-2.5) over Baltimore

Season record: 3-3

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.