Cox Block: My Response to the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

So this week instead of reading Marble Ryan’s cute little write-up of his standard shitty pick – he’s currently too busy at work to find the worst betting game of the week for you – you’re getting a pick that actually has a shot at netting you some cash.

I feel somewhat reluctant to publish my reasoning for this pick. After all, Marble Ryan might get the idea to actually start looking up this sort of information before submitting the picks that I’m required to bet against. But in the spirit of wealth redistribution championed by our next president, I feel obliged to go ahead write it. So here goes.

TENNESSEE -5 over Green Bay


My reasoning, you ask? Pretty simple. Consider all of the Titans ATS trends in play this week from my friends at covers.com:

• Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

I left in the negative trends in just so I could point out that the last Monday night game that the Titans played was in 2004, so that last 0-5 — the only really alarming trend here — is put into perspective. You have to go back pretty far to find those 5 ATS losses. The only people picking based on the 3-7 trend are either monumentally desperate suicide poolers or guys with the first name Marble.

That said, only one of the positive trends really matters to me: Titans 7-0 ATS this season. Tell me this: when was the last time you saw someone successfully do something 7 times in a row and then bet against them doing it an 8th time?

Was it shooting free throws? Maybe picking up hot girls in a club? What about succumbing to heinous girls in an Upper East Side bar?

No, no and definitely no.

The answer is never. You never, NEVER, bet against this sort of trend until it has been broken. Betting trends are like great blow jobs – they always end – but until they do, you ride them out and treasure every moment.