The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

A basic rule for novice stock traders is that when you think you've spotted a trend, you've probably arrived just in time for the end of it. That's how the experts make their piles of money: getting on the other side of the rookies who have completely missed the party. I suspect the same is true for NFL gambling, which is the only way I can explain my alarming futility over the past few weeks. Last week, my attempt to ride the wave was disastrous, as the briefly high flying Dolphins (my pick) seemingly stepped into a time machine before their game, in which they faced a Ravens team that looked like it was straight outta 2000. That's mud in my eye, I suppose, for being the dumb money.

Trouble is, sometimes the dumb money is the big money. And, there's a reason a trend can look just too tempting to pass up. I think I'll give it one more week before I start abiding the "opposite rule," which dictates that I examine my instincts and just go in the opposite direction – a strategy that worked wonders for George Costanza.

As for Week 8, though, two trends are calling my name. Trend #1: The Cowboys are a team in complete disarray, having started to decline even before Romo suffered an injury that makes him throw even more like a girl. Maybe Wade Philips hasn't lost the team, but he's definitely lost TO, who looks about ready to snap from the pain of less than 10 targets per game. Trend #2: The return of Jeff Garcia has revitalized the Bucs, who've won two straight in a very convincing fashion. Garcia may not have a big arm, but he knows how to pick apart a defense, especially a mediocre one, which is exactly what he'll be facing when the Ageless Wonders from Tampa roll into Dallas in Week 8. With my luck, this has "broken trend" written all over it, but I'm putting it all on the Bucs this week as road dogs against a Cowboys team that's gasping for air.

The pick (home team in caps): Tampa Bay +2.5 over DALLAS

Season record: 3-4

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.