You Know Who You Should Sit?

Marshawn Lynch (RB – BUF) For his first-round playoff matchup against Mr. T, our resident fantasy football savant, Marble Ryan has made the gutsy decision to bench his #1 RB. When informed of this move, Lynch was reportedly very upset, telling reporters, "I help that ungrateful jerk make the playoffs and this is how he repays me? I know he's disappointed in my workmanlike 67 yards per game average, but doesn't he see how hard I've been trying? People don't know the kind of pressure that comes with being a top-12 pick in fantasy drafts. My mom always told me that if I try my hardest good things will happen, but now I'm not so sure. It's just...I feel like...excuse me for a second." With that Lynch ran into a nearby bathroom stall. Although he later said he was fine and simply had to go to the bathroom, reporters claimed to have heard sobbing coming from the stall, as well as Lynch mumbling to himself, "Stop crying! Stop it! Football players don't cry! You're so stupid! Stupid! Stupid! Stupid!" If you have a more emotionally stable option with a better matchup on your roster, I'd recommend going with it.

You Know Who You Should Also Sit?

Joe Flacco (QB – BAL) While I've been a fan of Flacco all year, he's going up against the ridiculously strong Steelers D this week, and I'm not going to trust a rookie QB in that matchup. Flacco's fantasy success has generally come due to his ability to make big plays, which offsets some of the mistakes he tends to make. The Steelers, however, don't give up the big play, leaving Flacco to rely on his accuracy and decision making, which at this point are not his strengths.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT) Going against the Ravens, his outlook isn’t all that much brighter than Flacco’s. All in all, avoid everyone from this matchup of 2 elite defenses.

Kevin Walter (WR – HOU) Walter's production this season has been more inconsistent then my start ‘em/sit ‘em picks. If you look at his stats, he's alternated every week between a solid fantasy week and a poor one for most of the season. Last week he put up 20 fantasy points. This isn't a good sign. It won't help matters that he's going against the Titans defense. Look for a safer option.

Frank Gore (RB – SF) Assuming he plays, he's not going to be 100%, and he's going against a solid Dolphins run D. He’s also on a West coast team traveling east. That’s a lot of warning signs.

Eddie Royal (WR – DEN) Royal’s an inconsistent performer, and this week he's going against Carolina, which allows the fewest yards to the number 2 WR of any team in the NFL. He still might come through with a big catch, but the odds are against it.
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You Know Who You Should Start?

Tyler Thigpen (QB – KC) Hangovers are one thing, but today I'm feeling like never before. Unfortunately, I can't say I'm still reeling from Britney Spears' birthday party at Tenjune or a wild night on the town with LC and Lo. In fact, my hangover isn't even alcohol-related. Last night we celebrated Torry Hallelujah's birthday with a Brazilian meat festival unlike anything we’d ever seen before. Coming off a stomach bug on Wednesday, it probably wasn't best for Mr. T to endure such gluttony, but I took one for the team. Last night's protein consumption was the largest I've seen since the Bang Bus Bukkake session of ‘06.

The Tyler Thigpen owners out there aren't hungover yet, though. Somehow the kid has continued to perform in the spread offense and has sprinkled in some rushing yards to keep the fantasy point totals high. The same should happen this week against a Chargers squad that still hasn't shown up for the '08 season. If someone can explain to me how Norv Turner still has a job, please do. A RGIOQB.com favorite, Thigpen should find the end zone a couple times and be his usual productive self.

You Know Who Else You Should Start?

David Garrard (QB - JAX) The once vaunted Packers secondary is now collapsing. The Jags will be able to establish the run, which should open up the passing game for Garrard. Earlier this week, a Jacksonville-area proctologist offered to remove Garrard's head from his ass, so he should finally be effective.

Clinton Portis (RB - WSH) Maybe this is an obvious one, but I expect Coach Janky Spanky to back up his trash talk this week.

Dominic Rhodes (RB - DET) The Lions didn't need the tryptophan on Thanksgiving because they've been asleep the whole season. Addai is banged up worse than that bartender at Deno's Party house, so the Rhodes play should be safe one — at least at the flex..

Vincent Jackson (WR - SD) It's always good to be called out by Marble Ryan. Jackson should have a potent day in the shootout against the Chiefs. Viva Viagra!

Davone Bess (WR - MIA) Time to get on board if you haven't already. This guy is a receptions machine!

Domenik Hixon (WR - NYG) Assuming he's healthy enough to play, he'll redeem himself this week against a Cowboys defense that has been playing over it's head the last few weeks.

John Carlson (TE - SEA) Not being owned by Torry Hallelujah guarantees success. It helps that he finally has some healthy receivers around him, as well.
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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

What a tough break for Michael J. Cox. By my calculation, I'm now up four games on my gambling nemesis, who for some reason volunteered to throw caution to the wind and take the other side of whatever bet I choose. What would drive him to something so reckless and foolhardy? Was he simply trying to take one for the team and incentivize me to make the best possible pick, and thus have RGIOQB put forth the best possible product? I don't know and frankly I don't really care, just as long as he shows up at the end of the season with that sweet green cheddar.

As the wins pile up, I grow bolder. I'm not interested in the easy swipe of Cox's cash. Any idiot can pick against the Bengals every week. No, I want Cox to wake up on Monday morning and think, "Damn, I never would've picked that game. I guess Marble is just plain better than me. Now I'm gonna need to do three passenger seat jack-off scenes a week just to pay him off." For Week 15, I have just the pick that's sure to get exactly that response.

Last week, the Cowboys and Giants both endured heart-wrenching losses. The Giants took us back to 2004 with a woeful performance against the Eagles, and though the 'Boys were leading the Steelers for virtually the entire second half, Dallas fans had their hearts ripped out as Pittsburgh scored two TDs in the last 5 minutes to steal the win. Now, the question is which one of these teams has the moxie to come back a week later, pick themselves off the mat and get that crucial W. I don't think I'm alone in observing that no one's got more moxie than the boys in blue. This is a gut check game, and probably the only situation in which you'll ever hear someone say that the rotund Wade Phillips does not have the requisite amount of gut. I like the Giants to win outright in Dallas, kill the Cowboys' playoff hopes, and easily cover the 3.5 points Vegas is handing them. Don't strain your wrist, Cox.

The Pick: New York (+3.5) over DALLAS

Season record: 7-5 (8-6 with Michael J. Cox's assistance)

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.
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Fantasy Football 2008: A Few Lessons Learned

With my 2008 fantasy season firmly in the books, I thought I’d try to help all of the other also rans out there by taking a look at a few things I learned over the past few months.

• Durability is a skill. Don’t draft a guy with a history of injury problems thinking that once he lands on your roster, he’ll finally find a way to stay healthy. Brian Westbrook is sixth overall in fantasy points among RBs, but I’m convinced I would have an extra 2-3 wins if I’d had someone a little more consistent and a little less explosive.

• Stay away from drafting RBs and WRs with preseason hamstring injuries – they won’t heal up until after their team’s bye. Of course, the player and the team will assure that everything’s fine, that the recovery is progressing. They’re bullshitting you.

• Just because a player has a big week early in the season, don’t think that it’s part of a pattern. If a mediocre player has a huge week in the middle of the season, you take it for what it is. Do the same early on unless you have strong evidence to the contrary. Depth will help you navigate injuries and bye weeks but ultimately won’t help you. Here’s looking at you, Ronnie Brown!

• On the flip side, look for hamstring-related bargains. You probably could’ve landed Ryan Grant, who had a nice finish to the season, for a near Bear Stearns-level pittance in Week 7 or 8.

• Don’t be afraid to clear a roster space for a good defense that’s on the bye. What do the Ravens, Steelers, and Bucs defenses have in common? They were all released in our league at some point during the season. Why? Their owners all had bye weeks and didn’t want to make room for an extra defense by cutting that WR5 they were hoping would pan out. Defenses like these might not be able to help you right away, but they’ll come in handy down the road.

• Don’t let distractions get to you. I missed the playoffs because I started Jake Delhomme on the bye. Why? Well, there’s no need to go into the details. Suffice it to say: keep your eye on the ball, son.

• People are going to have some very tough decisions to make next year. As Marble Ryan and I discussed in this week’s podcast, DeAngelo Williams now leads the league in fantasy points among RBs. But are you really going to spend a top 5 pick on a guy who plays on an up-and-down team and who’s bound to split carries?
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Week 15 Podcast: "That's what happens when you attack a job with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind."

Host Torry Hallelujah returns to the podcast after a brief hiatus to join Marble Ryan to discuss this week's Marble Lock, the NFL playoff picture, and provide a look at next week's 2009 Draft Preview.

Donwload the Podcast



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The Name Game

In honor of the segment of the same name on ESPN’s Fantasy Football Focus podcast, we’ve decided to take this Tuesday afternoon to have a little nominal fun of our own. The Name Game forces you to make a decision about which player you’d rather own from now until the end of the season. Standard scoring is assumed for all comparisons. Unfortunately we don’t have a fancy drop, so let’s go straight to our experts’ opinions.

Donovan McNabb or Matt Ryan?

Marble Ryan: McNabb probably won't have a game like the one he was benched in for the rest of the year, but I think Ryan still has less risk. Ryan has been very consistent and in playoff time, that's what you need.

The Slow Eater: You don't want your QB to shit the bed in the playoffs, and with McNabb there's a decent chance of that. I’ll go Ryan.

Bruno: Ryan’s facing Tampa/Minnesota, but he wins out because he's got more weapons, especially “Rowdy” Roddy White. McNabb may have the softer schedule, but I wouldn't trust my playoff run behind a guy who could be out of a job in a few months


Frank Gore or Steve Slaton?

Marble Ryan: Gore is slowing down, but I think if he's gotten you to this point, you can't abandon him. Slaton's stock is pretty high in keeper leagues though.

The Slow Eater: Slaton has run for over 100 yards in 3 of his past 4 games. Gore has only broken 100 once in his past 7. Go with the hot hand.

Bruno: Slaton’s more likely to find paydirt and has better games through the air than Gore, who doesn't carry the ball as much in Martz's O. Look at Gore's last four games to tell the tale: 18 carries, 14, 24, 14.


Antonio Bryant or Kevin Walter?

The Slow Eater: Bryant just blew his load for the rest of the year. With Schaub back, Walter should see plenty of targets as the #2 WR in Houston.

Marble Ryan: Again, I’ll go with consistency. With Schaub back, Walter's the safer choice.

Bruno: It’s Bryant by a longshot. He's the outright #1 receiver in Tampa (Joey who?) and will be facing Atlanta and San Diego, who can't exactly stop a pass these days. Walter's got Andre 3000 to deal with and is the second or third red zone option.

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Welcome to the Playoffs

After writing my swan song three weeks ago, it appeared as if Mr. T would not be defending his title. The ground had been dug up, the tombstone had been constructed, and the epitaph had been written. "Here lies Mr. T. He was unable to overcome the championship hangover. His wisdom was defied. Thomas Jones couldn't save his season." Then something odd happened. Whether it be a decrease in trash talk or a minor miracle, karma started working in this man's direction. I reeled off three straight wins and now sit in third place, awaiting a showdown with Marble Ryan, the preeminent football mind of his generation. While Marble's preeminence will continue to receive the Antonio Pierce treatment, my roster decisions will not face such investigation.

You see, I sat in this same seat one year ago. I was the #3 seed, two wins away from a year's worth of bragging rights, and I took home the crown. Torry Hallelujah has already shown you how mismanagement can ruin a fantasy season. This week, the man who can claim the astute roster acquisitions of Kenny Watson, Kolby Smith, and Darius Walker in Week 16 of last year's final will deliver several names who he expects to wreak havoc in this year's playoffs.

Kyle Orton (QB - CHI) The winds of the South Side are never a pleasant thing, but Chicago's QB has the makings of a playoff performer. He looks homeless and is known to like his Jack Daniels, but you can't fault a guy with his upcoming schedule. The Saints haven’t shown the ability to hold down fantasy QBs and the Packers' secondary currently looks like a collection of Bear Sterns traders masquerading as defensive backs. Weather permitting, and I stress that, Orton should be good enough to steer your ship. And his beard fits right into any pirate motif.

Tyler Thigpen (QB - KC) We've already told you to get Thiggy with it numerous times this year. If you haven't listened, shame on you! He's been a fairly consistent producer and the next two opponents (SD & MIA) shouldn't pose much competition.

Shaun Hill (QB - SF) You never thought you'd be able to move on from Alex Smith, right? Me neither. I was really hoping that Upper Deck rookie card wouldn't go to waste. Instead it appears Hill is very effective and doesn't turn the ball over as much as J.T. O'Sucks-again. Miami and St. Louis provide perfect conditions for continued success.

Kevin Smith (RB - DET) The Lions suck, but that hasn't stopped Kevin Smith from being relatively productive. You still might be kicking yourself for drafting him ahead of Matt Forte (I know I am!!), but the Colts and Saints won't be too formidable in the next two weeks.

Pierre Thomas (RB - NO) Fear is possibly the greatest motivator. The Saints informed Thomas that if he didn't excel in the season's closing weeks, they'd feel the need to draft a RB in the 2009 Draft. Thomas responded with a 2 TD performance on Sunday and looks to continue performing against the Bears and Lions. And if you're saying Lions and Bears, oh my, notice that the Bears run defense hasn't stopped anyone on the road recently.

Davon Bess (WR - MIA) If you've watched Bess play over the last few weeks, you're already asking your parents to allow you to get dreds. Davone has been a consistent target for Pennington since Camarillo went down, although he hasn't been able to find the end zone. With the Niners and Chiefs on the menu, paydirt will be served with your cheese course.

Deion Branch (WR - SEA) I'm still amazed at how the Seahawks gave up a first round pick for this guy, but that's not your problem. The Rams and Jets won't be a problem for Deion either with what they've shown in their secondary recently. Order your neon green gloves and enjoy the show.
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Scouts’ Take: In which we discuss the implications of a Monday Night Football showdown, Joseph Addai’s disappearance, and fantasy collusion

Each week, our scouts gather to share their observations on the most noteworthy Sunday performances. Unfortunately, after attempting to save Tribune Co. by buying up copies of the Hartford Courant, we had to fire them all. In their place are Cousin Bowser, Lafayette Gold, Mr. T, The Slow Eater, and Torry Hallelujah, who let us know what they took away from the Week 14 action.

Mr. T: Michael J. Cox’s fate lies in the hands of Warrick Dunn. Lafayette couldn't seize the day and now waits to see whether he can back in.

Lafayette Gold: Mr. T, let’s hear your odds on Dunn coming through with 8 pts tonight.

Mr. T: A few things to consider here:

• In their first game, Tampa rushed for 142 yards. Dunn himself had 115 rushing and 18 receiving
• Carolina is allowing 112.8 yards per game on the ground
• In home games, Carolina has allowed the following fantasy points to starting RBs: 11, 5, 0, 5, 7, and 13
• In road games, Tampa has scored the following fantasy points with their starting RBs: 11, 5, 7, 6, 8, 18
• I'm pretty sure Tampa only has one road rushing TD this year and that was against the Lions, so it doesn't count

With all that said, I think the odds of Dunn scoring 8 or more points are 50%. Normally I'd think they'd be higher, but Dunn was on my hate list this week because I never like the road teams in these NFC South games (for an example, just take a look at yesterday's Saints/Falcons game).

The Slow Eater: ESPN’s fantasy projections are a joke, but if Dunn gets a couple receptions to go with his carries, he should be good to top 80 yards. Based on this weekend’s performance, I think I might have screwed myself for the playoffs by not holding out on moving out of my parent’s house for another month. Also, and most importantly, if Torry Hallelujah remembers to sit Delhomme on the bye in Week 9, he makes the playoffs. Let this never be forgotten.

Torry Hallelujah: I thought we determined that I still would’ve lost even if I’d started Delhomme? Oh well, at least I was able to wrench a weekly winner out of it.

Mr. T: Nope, I just looked. You lost by 16 and Frerrote had 17. The price paid for explosivity might be $480. And I'm sorry, as you'll most likely admit, there's absolutely no reason to not field a starting lineup when you have a whole week to make the change. There's no excuse that makes sense unless you're out of the country and devoid of internet, but in that case you can at least change out your bye week players a week in advance...

Mr. T: I thought it was ironic that in the week I need to beat Marble Ryan to make the playoffs, Thomas Jones scores 12 points, Matt Schaub scores 24, Fitzgerald scores 13 to Boldin's 6, Randy Moss scores 5, Romo scores 4, Eddie Royal scores 5, and Sammy Morris scores 9.

Mr. T: In other news, Peyton Hillis might be done for the year. It seems like no one can stay healthy in that Broncos backfield. And after Westbrook's performance yesterday, Addai creeps back up into most disappointing first round pick conversation.

Lafayette Gold: Addai killed me yesterday — he should have had a field day with the Bengals D. The Colts win 35-3 and I got 7 friggin' points total from Addai and Wayne! I am now the new president of the Warrick Dunn fan club!

Mr. T: Does anyone remember all the trash Marble Ryan was talking during the early games yesterday? And I kept telling him none of my players had played yet...

Lafayette Gold: Mr. T, lets be honest: you can thank the Colts defense for your clincher. 26 points! Wow! That is Raven-like.

Mr. T: That's something called roster management — picking up a defense with two favorable matchups coming up. Maybe Torry can take a lesson from this. But to balance out the Colts’ positive outing, I had the Evans, Colston, and Portis six-point combination. That's life, that's fantasy football…

Lafayette Gold: I find it funny Mr. T is promoting his Colts defense move and ripping Addai, but he never has given props for the key mid-season pickup of the Ravens D. That move won me a couple of games while my team was all banged up.

Mr. T: I didn't feel the need to pat you on the back for picking up a successful defense because your team is such a juggernaut without them. They fit right in with the all the talent on the roster.

The Slow Eater: Speaking of the Hillis injury, I now can stop kicking myself for dropping him the week before he became the starter. At least that probably won't be the reason I lose in the playoffs.

Mr. T: I'm very grateful for the one week Hillis provided my squad. After seeing what Tashard Choice did against the Steelers, I now have faith in him to carry the load if Barber is unable to suit up.

Mr. T: Slow Eater, where's your promotion of Lafayette’s team today? I expected more of a smoke blowing from you given that your playoff opponent is yet to be decided...

The Slow Eater: I don't want to say anything that could potentially jinx the outcome. I'm just going to say that I'll be watching Warrick Dunn's performance very closely tonight.

Mr. T: It's only fitting that I face Marble Ryan after everything that happened this year. Let the games begin!

Cousin Bowser: I'd like to steer the conversation in a different direction for a second. We all know that I have adamantly spoken against schedule unfairness this whole season. Aside from the fact that I had to play 4 weekly winners (and would have myself been the weekly winners of two of those weeks had my opponent not beaten me), I think it is absurd that the team that has scored the lowest point total has even the slightest chance of making the playoffs. I haven't contributed to the Basketball on Grass bashing that has gone on this whole season, but now as I sit looking at tonight's matchup, on the eve of the start of the playoffs, I can't help but wonder if I should take it upon myself to make sure that Lafayette doesn't make the playoffs by sitting Warrick Dunn tonight. That said, and considering that I obviously wouldn't really do that (because I think he's good for 60 points tonight and a $20 WW prize), what do you think the actions of the collective league would be if:

1. I sat him out of spite for Lafayette
2. I sat him in exchange for Michael J. Cox funding a small piece of my overall loser fee

We've never really had this kind of scenario before. What are your thoughts on this?

Mr. T: My friend at work told me a while back that his league institutes a policy that you need to play a full lineup every week. In the same way you couldn’t bench the Giants D to guarantee a win, you couldn't bench someone to guarantee a loss. I say let Dunn play and let nature take its course.

The Slow Eater: While it might be tempting to sit him out of spite, doing it would be collusion between you and Michael J. Cox (even if Cox had nothing to do with it, and especially if MJC agreed to pay some of your loser's fee). Collusion is one of the few things expressly forbidden in fantasy leagues. The whole reason we put in the weekly winner prize and the loser's fee is so everyone would be trying their hardest to win every week and people wouldn't quit before the season was over. You have to play to win, especially in a league among friends. Play Dunn. It's very possible the karmic gods we'll reward you by having his leg ripped off on the opening drive.

Lafayette Gold: That would be pretty harsh considering I didn’t make the schedule or set the rules.... In my old league I actually tied the championship game and according to ESPN, total points was the tie breaker (in this league I was actually first in total points) and the commish was bush league and decided to overrule ESPN and set bench points tie breaker so I got nothing.

The Slow Eater: Mr. T, what's the tiebreaker system for our league set at? Considering how many freaking ties we've had in the league this year, it coming up in the playoffs is a definite possibility.

Mr. T: It’s total TDs that week by your starting roster and then QB points. Load the buses!
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The Post In Which I Turn the Blame to Where It Truly Belongs

Well, fantasy brethren, it appears as if my 2008 season has finally come to a close. Though I racked up 148 points (yes, I had Westbrook in the lineup this week) in a convincing win over the league’s first place team, the Chefs 2.0, I failed to get the help I needed to make the playoffs. A win by Mr. T’s A-Team over Marble Ryan’s Wo Ai Beijing sealed my fate.

As we’ve detailed in this space before, it’s been a tough year for the KL Crew. But there have been times when the picture was much rosier. On Oct. 22, I was 5-1-1, and in his midseason review, Mr. T gave me 4-1 odds to win the championship. From there, the wheels fell off. The Crew stumbled to a 2-5 finish.

Now, it would be one thing if I’d just totally wrecked my draft and had a terrible team from the start, or if I’d just been one of those hard-luck teams that always seems to play the week’s high scorer. My schedule was tough, sure, and I did have some bad luck — ahem, Plaxico Burress — but it wasn’t the problem.

No, my friends: I was the problem. To quote Herm Edwards — and, really, there are only a few moments in life that can’t be explained with a Herm Edwards quote — “I did a bad job. I did a bad job preparing this football team. Terrible job! I DID A BAD JOB!!!”

Looking back, it’s easy to see where things went wrong.

1) I failed to trade Ronnie Brown after his 5-TD explosion against the Patriots in Week 3, deciding that with Ryan Grant’s hamstring, Chris Johnson’s timeshare, and Westbrook’s durability issues, I’d be better served by having depth.

2) I failed to adjust my roster for my Week 9 game against Cousin Bowser, leaving Jake Delhomme in as a starter even though the Panthers were on the bye. If I’d started my backup, Gus Frerotte, I would’ve won by 1 point.

3) Sitting on the couch with a laptop on Thanksgiving, I came across this piece by Stephania Bell and decide to bench Brian Westbrook for the Eagles’ Thursday night game against the Cardinals. If I’d started him, I would’ve won. Fuck you, Starphania.

But it’s all over now, for good this time, and I feel relieved. This Sunday, I’ll be able to watch the games for their pure entertainment value and not have to worry about how my team is performing. I’ll be able to watch every Jay Cutler deep ball and not have to worry that Eddie Royal, and not Brandon Marshall, will be on the end of it. I won’t have to worry about which kicker to pick up off of waivers or who my opponent has in the Monday night game. Best of all, I’ll no longer have to root for Matt Cassel.

So that’s it for my team and, for the year, this column. Don’t feel bad for me, for I am going to a better place – one where I can enjoy football as it is meant to be enjoyed. I’ll also be drunk off my ass to numb myself from the pain.

Until next year.
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