In the RexGrossmanIsOurQuarterback.com fantasy league this week, Marble Ryan holds a one point lead, 94-93, over Black Irish going into Monday night’s contest between the Giants and the Browns. While Black Irish doesn’t have any players in this game on his team, Marble Ryan has the Giants defense.If Marble Ryan were to bench the Giants defense, he’d guarantee himself a victory (barring a scoring adjustment). While starting the Giants defense could add to his point total – which would come in handy should he tie for a playoff spot – it’s possible they could also score negative fantasy points, giving him a loss for the week. Given all of this, we decided to ask our league members whether or not Marble should start or bench the Giants D tonight.
Note: In the RGIOQB fantasy league, a defense scores -1 points by giving up 28-34 points and -4 points if they give up 35+ points. These tallies are offset by any sacks, turnovers, or touchdowns the defense generates during the game.
Marble Ryan: I might bench them, just to lock it in, although I'm not sure. I think they’re a lock for at least one sack, but both the Browns and the Giants are due for an adjustment toward the mean.
Torry Hallelujah: I was thinking about this myself, and you have to play the defense. The final playoff spot is almost always decided by a tiebreaker, so you can't leave points on the table. Also, the nightmare scenario is benching your defense, then moving into a tie/loss as a result of a mid-week scoring adjustment. Unlikely, but worth considering. And pragmatically, the Giants pass rush is so strong that even if they give up a –4 on points, they're likely to at least have a few sacks and a turnover to make up for that.
Steve Stevens: Start ‘em. It's the Browns for fuck’s sake.
The Slow Eater: I know I'm a little late jumping in this conversation, but if I'm Marble, I sit my defense tonight. You worry about winning the game first, point totals later. Then again, I am the guy who sat Tomlinson and his 2 TDs for Michael Bush a couple weeks ago because Tomlinson was listed as questionable, so it's possible I play an overly conservative game. Of course the odds are heavily in favor of the Giants D putting up positive points, but I think you have to look at the potential damage of them costing Marble this game vs. the potential good having a few extra points could do him in a tiebreaker situation. I don't think potentially getting 5-10 points is worth the risk.
Mr. T: I'd probably play the Giants defense if it were me. With Winslow out, you figure the Browns offense won't be that great. They're also missing one of their tackles. Tuck should have at least two sacks against Ryan Tucker. I know Herm said you play to win the games, but when are you ever gonna take Herm's word for it. Mr. T says you play the odds. The odds are in Marble’s favor if he plays the Giants D. The chance of Cleveland scoring all those points without any sacks or turnovers is probably 5%. You're gonna be kicking yourself when you watch Aaron Ross running back a T.A.I.N.T. in the 3rd quarter. If it’s a QB like Rex Grossman then I’d bench him. Not the best defense in football against the 32nd rated offense. I'll add that Karma is on Marble’s side. His girlfriend just spent a weekend in Vegas. If anything, he's due for something in return...
Michael J. Cox: I think you have to play the Giants D tonight. Just think about it this way. If you walked into Caesars and put money on a prop that said the Giants defense would give up 35+ points, have less than <2 sacks & <1 turnover. You'd probably be looking at 10/1 odds on it (Browns are +300 on the ML, so figure give it something just north of a 3x multiplier for the special requirements). On the other hand, I would put the odds of you being in a tiebreaker situation where points are a factor at more like 5/1. I think it's a no brainer.
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