Thursday, December 11, 2008

Fantasy Football 2008: A Few Lessons Learned

With my 2008 fantasy season firmly in the books, I thought I’d try to help all of the other also rans out there by taking a look at a few things I learned over the past few months.

• Durability is a skill. Don’t draft a guy with a history of injury problems thinking that once he lands on your roster, he’ll finally find a way to stay healthy. Brian Westbrook is sixth overall in fantasy points among RBs, but I’m convinced I would have an extra 2-3 wins if I’d had someone a little more consistent and a little less explosive.

• Stay away from drafting RBs and WRs with preseason hamstring injuries – they won’t heal up until after their team’s bye. Of course, the player and the team will assure that everything’s fine, that the recovery is progressing. They’re bullshitting you.

• Just because a player has a big week early in the season, don’t think that it’s part of a pattern. If a mediocre player has a huge week in the middle of the season, you take it for what it is. Do the same early on unless you have strong evidence to the contrary. Depth will help you navigate injuries and bye weeks but ultimately won’t help you. Here’s looking at you, Ronnie Brown!

• On the flip side, look for hamstring-related bargains. You probably could’ve landed Ryan Grant, who had a nice finish to the season, for a near Bear Stearns-level pittance in Week 7 or 8.

• Don’t be afraid to clear a roster space for a good defense that’s on the bye. What do the Ravens, Steelers, and Bucs defenses have in common? They were all released in our league at some point during the season. Why? Their owners all had bye weeks and didn’t want to make room for an extra defense by cutting that WR5 they were hoping would pan out. Defenses like these might not be able to help you right away, but they’ll come in handy down the road.

• Don’t let distractions get to you. I missed the playoffs because I started Jake Delhomme on the bye. Why? Well, there’s no need to go into the details. Suffice it to say: keep your eye on the ball, son.

• People are going to have some very tough decisions to make next year. As Marble Ryan and I discussed in this week’s podcast, DeAngelo Williams now leads the league in fantasy points among RBs. But are you really going to spend a top 5 pick on a guy who plays on an up-and-down team and who’s bound to split carries?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

you can't make a statement like "started Jake Delhomme on a bye" without an explanation.

Anonymous said...

Brian Westbrook.. yea.. you have to hate those guys that are 60% of their teams offense and are guaranteed 20+ touches a game, not to mention the 3 catch per game bonus in PPR leagues.. and then they try to play with cracked ribs and a high ankle sprain so you don't have to start Ronnie Brown.. those guys suck..