Monday, December 8, 2008

Scouts’ Take: In which we discuss the implications of a Monday Night Football showdown, Joseph Addai’s disappearance, and fantasy collusion

Each week, our scouts gather to share their observations on the most noteworthy Sunday performances. Unfortunately, after attempting to save Tribune Co. by buying up copies of the Hartford Courant, we had to fire them all. In their place are Cousin Bowser, Lafayette Gold, Mr. T, The Slow Eater, and Torry Hallelujah, who let us know what they took away from the Week 14 action.

Mr. T: Michael J. Cox’s fate lies in the hands of Warrick Dunn. Lafayette couldn't seize the day and now waits to see whether he can back in.

Lafayette Gold: Mr. T, let’s hear your odds on Dunn coming through with 8 pts tonight.

Mr. T: A few things to consider here:
  • In their first game, Tampa rushed for 142 yards. Dunn himself had 115 rushing and 18 receiving
  • Carolina is allowing 112.8 yards per game on the ground
  • In home games, Carolina has allowed the following fantasy points to starting RBs: 11, 5, 0, 5, 7, and 13
  • In road games, Tampa has scored the following fantasy points with their starting RBs: 11, 5, 7, 6, 8, 18
  • I'm pretty sure Tampa only has one road rushing TD this year and that was against the Lions, so it doesn't count
With all that said, I think the odds of Dunn scoring 8 or more points are 50%. Normally I'd think they'd be higher, but Dunn was on my hate list this week because I never like the road teams in these NFC South games (for an example, just take a look at yesterday's Saints/Falcons game).

The Slow Eater: ESPN’s fantasy projections are a joke, but if Dunn gets a couple receptions to go with his carries, he should be good to top 80 yards. Based on this weekend’s performance, I think I might have screwed myself for the playoffs by not holding out on moving out of my parent’s house for another month. Also, and most importantly, if Torry Hallelujah remembers to sit Delhomme on the bye in Week 9, he makes the playoffs. Let this never be forgotten.

Torry Hallelujah: I thought we determined that I still would’ve lost even if I’d started Delhomme? Oh well, at least I was able to wrench a weekly winner out of it.

Mr. T: Nope, I just looked. You lost by 16 and Frerrote had 17. The price paid for explosivity might be $480. And I'm sorry, as you'll most likely admit, there's absolutely no reason to not field a starting lineup when you have a whole week to make the change. There's no excuse that makes sense unless you're out of the country and devoid of internet, but in that case you can at least change out your bye week players a week in advance...

Mr. T: I thought it was ironic that in the week I need to beat Marble Ryan to make the playoffs, Thomas Jones scores 12 points, Matt Schaub scores 24, Fitzgerald scores 13 to Boldin's 6, Randy Moss scores 5, Romo scores 4, Eddie Royal scores 5, and Sammy Morris scores 9.

Mr. T: In other news, Peyton Hillis might be done for the year. It seems like no one can stay healthy in that Broncos backfield. And after Westbrook's performance yesterday, Addai creeps back up into most disappointing first round pick conversation.

Lafayette Gold: Addai killed me yesterday — he should have had a field day with the Bengals D. The Colts win 35-3 and I got 7 friggin' points total from Addai and Wayne! I am now the new president of the Warrick Dunn fan club!

Mr. T: Does anyone remember all the trash Marble Ryan was talking during the early games yesterday? And I kept telling him none of my players had played yet...

Lafayette Gold: Mr. T, lets be honest: you can thank the Colts defense for your clincher. 26 points! Wow! That is Raven-like.

Mr. T: That's something called roster management — picking up a defense with two favorable matchups coming up. Maybe Torry can take a lesson from this. But to balance out the Colts’ positive outing, I had the Evans, Colston, and Portis six-point combination. That's life, that's fantasy football…

Lafayette Gold: I find it funny Mr. T is promoting his Colts defense move and ripping Addai, but he never has given props for the key mid-season pickup of the Ravens D. That move won me a couple of games while my team was all banged up.

Mr. T: I didn't feel the need to pat you on the back for picking up a successful defense because your team is such a juggernaut without them. They fit right in with the all the talent on the roster.

The Slow Eater: Speaking of the Hillis injury, I now can stop kicking myself for dropping him the week before he became the starter. At least that probably won't be the reason I lose in the playoffs.

Mr. T: I'm very grateful for the one week Hillis provided my squad. After seeing what Tashard Choice did against the Steelers, I now have faith in him to carry the load if Barber is unable to suit up.

Mr. T: Slow Eater, where's your promotion of Lafayette’s team today? I expected more of a smoke blowing from you given that your playoff opponent is yet to be decided...

The Slow Eater: I don't want to say anything that could potentially jinx the outcome. I'm just going to say that I'll be watching Warrick Dunn's performance very closely tonight.

Mr. T: It's only fitting that I face Marble Ryan after everything that happened this year. Let the games begin!

Cousin Bowser: I'd like to steer the conversation in a different direction for a second. We all know that I have adamantly spoken against schedule unfairness this whole season. Aside from the fact that I had to play 4 weekly winners (and would have myself been the weekly winners of two of those weeks had my opponent not beaten me), I think it is absurd that the team that has scored the lowest point total has even the slightest chance of making the playoffs. I haven't contributed to the Basketball on Grass bashing that has gone on this whole season, but now as I sit looking at tonight's matchup, on the eve of the start of the playoffs, I can't help but wonder if I should take it upon myself to make sure that Lafayette doesn't make the playoffs by sitting Warrick Dunn tonight. That said, and considering that I obviously wouldn't really do that (because I think he's good for 60 points tonight and a $20 WW prize), what do you think the actions of the collective league would be if:
  1. I sat him out of spite for Lafayette
  2. I sat him in exchange for Michael J. Cox funding a small piece of my overall loser fee

We've never really had this kind of scenario before. What are your thoughts on this?

Mr. T: My friend at work told me a while back that his league institutes a policy that you need to play a full lineup every week. In the same way you couldn’t bench the Giants D to guarantee a win, you couldn't bench someone to guarantee a loss. I say let Dunn play and let nature take its course.

The Slow Eater: While it might be tempting to sit him out of spite, doing it would be collusion between you and Michael J. Cox (even if Cox had nothing to do with it, and especially if MJC agreed to pay some of your loser's fee). Collusion is one of the few things expressly forbidden in fantasy leagues. The whole reason we put in the weekly winner prize and the loser's fee is so everyone would be trying their hardest to win every week and people wouldn't quit before the season was over. You have to play to win, especially in a league among friends. Play Dunn. It's very possible the karmic gods we'll reward you by having his leg ripped off on the opening drive.

Lafayette Gold: That would be pretty harsh considering I didn’t make the schedule or set the rules.... In my old league I actually tied the championship game and according to ESPN, total points was the tie breaker (in this league I was actually first in total points) and the commish was bush league and decided to overrule ESPN and set bench points tie breaker so I got nothing.

The Slow Eater: Mr. T, what's the tiebreaker system for our league set at? Considering how many freaking ties we've had in the league this year, it coming up in the playoffs is a definite possibility.

Mr. T: It’s total TDs that week by your starting roster and then QB points. Load the buses!

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