The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

The results speak for themselves: putting Michael J. Cox on the other side of my bets, regardless of whether he agrees with them or not, has taken the Lock to the level of brilliance we expected from the get go. Last week, even Cox himself had to nod his head in capitulation when I handed my loyal readers the lock of the millennium. I don't really know what Vegas was thinking taking points away from the Chargers against a streaking Colts team.

The result begs the question: is there a flaw in the picking system at RGIOQB.com? I mean, I can't help but feel bad for Cox, who's at quite a disadvantage stuck putting his money against the expert prognostications formulated at the Marble Institute. He's got no choices, no defenses, and no control. So, in the interest of fairness, I think we can experiment in Week 13 with a pick that might not be the most obvious choice; something that won't have Cox so worried that he can't get it up for the big scene in Butt Busters 17 he'll be filming on Saturday afternoon.

This weekend the Broncos will visit the Meadowlands, gasping for air and drawing a red hot Jets team. Cutler has looked very average over the past few weeks, and I think we can all agree that Denver's pathetic running back situation is likely to go to zero against the Jets improving run D. A Jets win won't be a surprise to anyone, although a Jets loss wouldn't be a surprise to Jets fans. I'm not a Jets fan, but Vegas and I are in agreement that the Broncos will head back to Denver with one more notch in the L column. However, let's not forget that this team is a likely division champion, and coach Shanahan no doubt has some tricks up his sleeve for this potential playoff preview.

Are you comfortable with the notion of a Jets win by more than a TD? 7.5 points sounds a little steep to me. Favre is due for a down game, and Cutler is due for a good one. Look for Thomas Jones to single handedly win the game despite Favre's best efforts to blow it. This game has the makings to be one of the most exciting of the season. I'm looking for the Jets to pull out the win in a shootout with lots of big plays and lots of mistakes. The Broncos might not be winning this week, but they are paying, so lock it up for an under the radar money maker.

The Pick: Denver +7.5 @ NEW YORK

Season record: 5-5 (6-6 with Michael J. Cox's assistance)

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.
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You Know Who You Should Sit?

Matt Cassell (QB – NE) When he first took over the starting job, Cassell was hard-working and determined to prove his critics wrong, but my sources tell me that his past few weeks of fantasy success may have gone to the quarterback’s head. Whereas he used to tell people how he just wanted to “do a good job until Brady’s able to return,” now he's been heard declaring that "We don't need that overpaid pretty boy! Has he ever thrown for over 400 yards in back to back games!? I didn't think so!" His dreams of surpassing Brady have gone so far that he's even been spotted canoodling with former Brady girlfriend Bridget Moynahan, and been telling anyone who would listen that he's "not only a better quarterback then that asshole, but also a hell of a better father!" Moynahan's publicist confirms that the two are dating, but rumors that Cassell insists on being told how much better in the bedroom he is than Brady have yet to be confirmed. All in all, expect Cassell to be too distracted this week to do much against the tough Steelers defense.

You Know Who Else You Should Sit?

Peyton Hillis (DRBS) Speaking of hot fantasy players about to come down to earth, Hillis is the latest in a long line of Denver RBs to come out of nowhere and achieve fantasy prominence. And, like those who came before him, Hillis can't be counted on for week-to-week production. This week, the Broncos take on the Jets, who are coming off a week in which they shut down the powerful Tennessee run game. Also, the Broncos will be welcoming Selvin Young, and for all we know, he could end up getting most of the carries. Look elsewhere.

Dwayne Bowe (WR – KC) As bad as my beloved Chiefs have been, and no matter which quarterback they’ve had under center, Dwayne Bowe has managed to be a consistent fantasy producer all year. Unfortunately, this week the Chiefs face the Raiders, and we all know what that means: Bowe will be matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha. Normally I don't pay much attention to which defensive back is going to be matched up against my receivers, but I make the exception for Asomungha, who has made a habit of completely neutralizing the best receivers in the NFL. Expect a tough day for Bowe.

Eli Manning (QB – NYG) While I think Manning will likely put up a good enough day to lead the Giants to victory against the Redskins, I think this will be another week where the Giants lean heavily on their running game, and that means disappointing fantasy numbers for Eli.

Marques Colston (WR – NO) Drew Brees seems to have a favorite receiver, and his name, unfortunately for Colston, is Lance Moore. While the Saints still throw it around enough for multiple receivers to get their yards, the fact is the Bucs have allowed only 4 receiving TDs at home all year. Add to that the fact that Reggie Bush is expected to return and factor heavily into the passing game, and suddenly it seems like there won’t be enough touches to go around. 2008 is beginning to look like a lost season for the talented receiver.
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You Know Who You Should Start?

Matt Ryan (QB – ATL) Giving thanks is common at this time of year. There are a lot of things I’m thankful for: DVR, Kraft Singles, Slingbox, and Carol Alt still bringing the heat at age 47. I’m also thankful I’ve never seen 87 and Still Banging because I hear that sets back a man’s sex drive for at least 5 years. It appears Matt Ryan hasn’t caught this film, either, because he’s been consistently effective in his rookie year. He hasn’t thrown a TD in the last two weeks, but before that, he went through a stretch where he threw 2 TDs in 4 of 5 games, so it’s not like he can’t find the end zone. He’s also completing a good percentage of his passes. Ryan’s fantasy owners should be thankful he’ll be facing a Chargers pass defense this week that has continuously proved to be softer than your belly after that extra helping of sweet potatoes. Expect Ryan to get back on track, because it’s unlikely you’ll see Alt naked outside of the pages in Playboy and it’s unlikely Michael Turner will have another 4 TD game.

You Know Who Else You Should Start?

Donovan McNabb & Brian Westbrook (QB, RB – PHI) Expect the duo to spring for 4 TDs each and a lot of yardage? Wait, that game was played already?!? I must’ve passed out from the tryptophan.

Chad Pennington (QB – MIA) Chad showed last week he can be explosive in fantasy sectors. His soft arm doesn’t translate to a hard time against the Rams.

Steve Slaton (RB – HOU) He’s a little banged up, but it’s nothing some Xango can’t fix. With Ahman Green shelved for the season, it’s Slaton’s world and we’re all just living in it.

Mewelde Moore (RB – PIT) This is conditional of Willie Parking being too banged up to play. In each of the four games he’s started, Moore has produced 10+ fantasy points. He’ll be starting against the Pats this week, which sounds like a nice combination to me after Thomas Jones ran well a couple weeks ago. I mean, what's not to like? Custard, good. Jam, good. Meat, good!

Jerricho Cotchery (WR – NYJ) The Champ might be back for Denver, but even if he is, Dre Bly is getting slow and old. Expect Crotch-rottery to produce with a hot Favre.

Vincent Jackson (WR – SD) I see a shootout in San Diego this week and Jackson has been the most effective Chargers’ receiver this year. And if one of my least favorite players doesn’t perform, I’ll drug him with turkey and boxed wine until he passes out and I can play with his Easy Bake oven.
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Turkey Time

Thanksgiving always provides a few things to fantasy football fans: three games to get excited about (even if one includes the Lions), the chance to shore up a playoff birth, and an few extra pounds around the waistline. While mom’s stuffing never disappoints, there are numerous players who have comes up short in the 2008 season. Today we take a look at this season’s fantasy turkeys – a group who couldn’t be improved even if they were wrapped in bacon.

Torry Holt (WR – STL) If only we could be screaming Hallelujah with the performance Mr. Holt has delivered this season. The Rams offense has been incredibly anemic, but Holt was able to survive that for a good part of last season. This year he appears to be a step slow and has completely dropped off the map in terms of fantasy credibility. The team ordered a routine physical last week to determine whether or not he still had all his limbs attached. Holt’s 2 TDs put him on pace for his lowest total since 2002, but at least he had 1,300 yards that year. An easy end-of-season schedule might seem promising, but I’d rather opt for the sweet potatoes.

Ladanian Tomlinson (RB – SD) You didn’t think we’d leave the fake LT off this list, did you? Unlike Lawrence Taylor, Tomlinson can’t blame his lack of production on an eight ball or some hookers. While some look to the injured toe as an excuse, I see a major disappointment. He looks exceptionally fast in that Vizio commercial, doesn’t he? Like Holt, he’s got a cushy schedule coming up, but he sure as hell hasn’t delivered for you this season. It’s a shame the 30-minutes-or-less policy doesn’t apply to #1 overall picks.

Roy Williams (WR – DAL) Even though he’s no longer a Lion, I felt compelled to include him as an honorary member on this list. He was drafted by Detroit with high expectations, but his production fell somewhat shorter of an Indian micro-penis. Unfortunately, there was no extensive survey done to find out Williams’ issue. At least the Indians were potent. Now in Dallas, Williams plays third fiddle. He’s become an afterthought for fantasy purposes, and the Cowboys schedule doesn’t aide him after this week’s cupcake vs. Seattle.

Larry Johnson (RB – KC) Honestly, what did you expect? When he wasn’t smacking a bitch up, he was running for three yards and a cloud of dust. The Chiefs offensive line was in shambles to begin the season, which didn’t help his cause, but overuse in previous seasons has caused Johnson to lose a step. The only thing to get Johnson through the hole quicker would be to sign Beyonce as a lead blocker because then, and only then, would LJ explode through the hole to chase after her beautiful donk. Let’s face it, LJ has no place in the Chiefs new spread offense. While his matchups aren’t bad, I’ll settle for another heaping of stuffing, some smaller condoms to control the Indian population, and a new Vizio TV.
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Week 13 Podcast: "Anybody can catch staph infections in Cleveland these days..."

Marble Ryan joins guest host Mr. T in discussing Donovan McNabb, the Browns offense, and Thursday's Thanksgiving games.

Donwload the Podcast



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Wednesday Afternoon Quarterback: Ten Things Peter King Thinks He Thinks

1. I drove out to the Jets practice facility last week to toss the ball around a little with Brett Favre. He’d showered and changed already, and was wearing a weathered pair of Wranglers and a t-shirt that hugged his rugged, masculine frame. The staff had shut off a few of the lights, but still his stubble glinted in the glow of … Sorry, I need to remember I'm a married man.

2. Spoke with Darren McFadden over Skype last week. He said, “Hello? Yo Pete, are you there? What’s going on here, man? All I hear is static. Aw man, fuck this shit, I’m outta here.” Catch up with you soon, D-Mac!

3. You know I’m not the biggest fantasy nut, but I have to tell you, pick up Adrian Peterson. Now. This kid’s going to be a star!

4. Wow, what an episode of House last week! It never fails to amaze me how every week, they can come up with a medical emergency that’s so compelling – and then resolve it all in the same episode! Also, I can’t wait to finally see this “24” show that everyone is talking about. The last I saw Kiefer Sutherland, he was starring in Stand By Me.

5. Enjoyable/Aggravating Travel Note of the Week: I found myself in Lambert-St. Louis International Airport on the 16th connecting flight of a 20-leg trip. At first, they directed me to Gate 25. Then, they changed it to Gate 24 – which, you would think, would be right next to Gate 25 and not, as it turned out, on the other side of the airport. Then they changed it back to Gate 11, which was right next to Gate 25! What kind of crazy world do we live in! It’s almost enough to make me wish I didn’t travel 356 days a year.

6. Looks like I got the numbers on that Kawika Mitchell contract wrong. If he plays in 17.5% of all third down snaps this season, he will receive a bonus of $145,000, not $135,000, as I stated in last week’s column. Additionally, he plays for the Buffalo Bills, not the Cincinnati Bengals. Sorry about that!

7. Coffeenerdness: At a Starbucks on I-70 in Ohio last week, I stood in line behind a portly woman with blonde, bushy hair. When she approached the counter, she ordered a double whip latte with skim milk. When she tasted her coffee, she handed it back to the barista, saying, “This doesn’t taste like skim milk to me!” Come on, people! What’s the point of ordered a latte with skim milk if you’re going to get double whip cream with it? I think everyone in this country has gone mad sometimes.

8. Who’s excited for Thanksgiving? Maybe I’ll get to see my wife this year. Sometimes, I forget what she looks like.

9. It’s been an honor and a pleasure, Calvin Hanabury. I wish you the best in all your projects, personal and professional.

10. I am lonely. So lonely.
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The Name Game

In honor of the segment of the same name on ESPN’s Fantasy Football Focus podcast, we’ve decided to take this Tuesday afternoon to have a little nominal fun of our own. The Name Game forces you to make a decision about which player you’d rather own from now until the end of the season. Standard scoring is assumed for all comparisons. Unfortunately we don’t have a fancy drop, so let’s go straight to our experts’ opinions.

Matt Cassel or Jay Cutler?

Marble Ryan: As good as Cassel has looked, I'd put my money on Cutler because of his talent. The supporting casts are a wash — I just think Cutler is the more capable athlete.

Black Irish: I’ll go with Cassel because it seems he's finally in sync with Moss. I buy what he's selling when he says he has been adjusting to game speed. He's been getting second team reps for years and now is finally seeing full first team reps and full game action. Compare this to guys like Matt Ryan and it makes sense he's hitting his stride now.

The Slow Eater: I know Cutler’s coming off a shitty game and Cassel just had a great one, but I still trust Cutler more. I also think opposing defenses are now going to be more prepared to not let Cassel beat them.

Steve Stevens: This is a tough one. I'm still not sold on Cassel, but Cutler is starting to look like monkey shit. Based on talent alone though, I'd stick with Cutler.

Torry Hallelujah: It’s Cassel and I don't think it's close.


Steve Slaton or DeAngelo Williams?

Black Irish: I’ll take Slaton. I like his big play ability.

The Slow Eater: I agree with Black Irish. I’m going with explosivity.

Steve Stevens: DeAngelo all the way on this one. Jonathan Stewart is hurt and it shows. How is DeAngelo Williams not explosive?

Marble Ryan: Anyone who says DeAngelo Williams is not explosive hasn't been watching football since October. This is the one that isn't even close — Williams is more talented, is on a better team, and has been playing better.

Torry Hallelujah: Williams has really impressed me this year. In each of his past four games, he's gone over 100 yards and scored at least once. I also wouldn't want to be counting on a rookie RB late in the season, even if he didn't exactly get a ton of early season carries.


Braylon Edwards or Laveranues Coles?

Marble Ryan: Edwards is the most disappointing player in fantasy this year, but
Coles has disappeared just as often. Again, I go with talent.

Black Irish: Uh, are you serious here? Braylon couldn't catch a beach ball if he wanted to. Plus he's got either Derek Anderson or a gimpy Brady Quinn throwing him the ball. It’s Coles hands down.

The Slow Eater: Even with all his drops, Braylon is getting a ton of targets per game. They're going to keep throwing him the ball because they know he's their best offensive weapon. You can't count on Coles to consistently put of points.

Steve Stevens: This is another tough one. Both are erratic but can put up major points any given week. Because Favre is playing great football, I'd go with Laveranues.

Torry Hallelujah: Please, gentlemen. The answer is Braylon — the guy just gets too many targets.
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Scouts’ Take: In which we discuss the exceedingly mediocre Donovan McNabb, the RGIOQB playoff race, and the NFL MVP candidates

Each week, our scouts gather to share their observations on the most noteworthy Sunday performances. Unfortunately, after blowing all our savings on a Toyota Corolla with 0% financing, we had to fire them all. In their place are Bruno, Marble Ryan, Mr. T, Steve Stevens, the Slow Eater, and Torry Hallelujah, who let us know what they took away from the Week 12 action.

Mr. T: So, do we think this is the end of the road for Donovan McNabb? At 5-6-1, the Eagles are still not completely out of the playoff run. Benching the dude at halftime really sends a message, especially when you're not getting blown out. Add the fact that Westbrook obviously is less than 75%, and it might be time to close the book on that Eagles offense. At least Cousin Bowser can turn to Shaun Hill, who, typical of a Mike Martz quarterback, has been effective for fantasy purposes since becoming the starter.

Marble Ryan: McNabb is done. Reid can't go back on his decision. McNabb on another team next year is a foregone conclusion, and they're not winning the Super Bowl, so they might as well get Kolb in there now and see what he can do. He looked pretty bad yesterday, too, though. A more interesting question is what kind of interest does McNabb get in the offseason? He's not very good, but I feel like someone is going to pay him way too much money.

Mr. T: Minnesota would sign him up right now. Some other teams would be on that line too. Kolb's basically a rookie, so you can't have any expectations for his play. Not everyone is as seasoned as Matt Ryan, with the ability to step in there and produce right away. If Kolb starts the rest of the season, we're talking about a major downgrade to DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis. Buckhalter sprained a knee ligament this week, so he's probably out for a little while. They might just shut down Westbrook too.

Steve Stevens: Lafayette Gold pulls out another win. The guy just knows how to win.

Marble Ryan: The Slow Eater’s karma play actually worked. Looks like the A-Team and KL Crew are neutralized, no matter who wins tonight.

Mr. T: The Slow Eater should strop worrying about Lafayette. Now that he's made the Brooklyn move official, his team's karma is about to go down the toilet. Watch Rodgers blow the game for him this week. By the way, if things hold this week, Lafayette beats the Slow Eater next week and Michael J. beats Marble Ryan, Lafayette jumps to 9-5 and takes over first place. I'm not sure I can live in a world where Basketball on Grass is a first place team...

The Slow Eater: I'm worried that finally getting an apartment might have killed my karma, although I think the change in my team's fortune's can be traced back to three weeks ago when I dropped Matt Cassel and he immediately turned into Kurt Warner.

Mr. T: Yeah that turned out to be pretty stupid, although I doubt you would've started Cassel over Rodgers or Cutler in any week. Cutler does look like crap from time to time. He needs to get his head in check because I see him complaining way too much. If the Raiders get under your skin, that's not a good sign for your mental stability.

Marble Ryan: Ever since Cutler made that comment about having a stronger arm than John Elway, his season has gone downhill and he hasn't done jack. Talk about bad karma.

Mr. T: Meanwhile, D-Mac looked rather explosive yesterday. He might finally be healthy. Fargas couldn't get moving down there near the goal line. We might be seeing more of D-Mac in these final few weeks. Shame he can't slot in at WR, or else it'd help the A-Team.

Marble Ryan: D-Mac could put up numbers like he did against Kentucky and it still wouldn't change the fact that the Z-Team will be watching the playoffs from the Carl Farbman chair.

Mr. T: Life's not over for Mr. T's A-Team just yet. A Steve Stevens win over Michael J. puts me one game out of the playoffs. Unfortunately Bowser couldn't take care of things on his end with Lafayette or we'd truly be alive. I ain't dead. And importantly for Mr. T's portfolio, I've got 2 playoff guarantees in other leagues and another knocking on the door, thus leaving the possibility of another net positive year on the table.

Mr. T: Eddie Royal had another explosive WR3 day. 14 yards on two catches is one hell of a day.

Marble Ryan: I think Nnamdi was covering him yesterday. Royal dropped a 45-yard diving grab that would've helped him out, but I blame the past two weeks on Cutler's shitty play. I think I'd be 1-3 without the trade versus 4-0 with it, so you can kiss my balls.

Mr. T: He wasn't guarded by Nnamdi. Nnamdi drew Marshall most of the game, but there were times when certain receivers were moved around the field, so Nnamdi switched off. At least that’s what the report said. Your trade only worked out because of the karma, which led to the injuries of Schaub and McGahee. Those aren't things that could've been predicted unless you had a DeLorean in your garage.

Mr. T: Someone get Steve and Bruno a few shots of Jameson after that Randy Moss 3 TD game this week...

Bruno: Fuck Karma! She is a dirty whore.

Cousin Bowser: Will someone please explain to me what I have going on for me that's so great as to warrant my team going 2-75 this season and playing 6 weekly winners?

Marble Ryan: You're just living the dream, Bowser.

Mr. T: Here’s a list of reasons why your fantasy karma is terrible:

1. You work for a company that has laid off thousands and you're still there
2. If that goes wrong you have a Jersey City job in your back pocket
3. You report to guys in Singapore and Hong Kong
4. You showed up to work at 12 last week after accidentally sleeping late and basically run your own schedule
5. You finally got to lay Spoons, twice, fulfilling a lifelong dream

Mr. T: After Manning's performance last night, I think the MVP race is really heating up. The Cardinals and the Colts now have the same record at 7-4. Where would the Colts be without Manning? 2-9? His numbers still aren't great, but now that he's healthy, it's all coming around. He's got 9 TDs and 1 INT in his last 4 games. With games against Cleveland, Cincy, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Tennessee remaining, he'll be able to put up good enough numbers to be competitive. The Colts will probably finish at 11-5 or 12-4. His team would be in really rough shape if he weren’t involved. That's why he's the most "valuable."

Torry Hallelujah: I’m starting to agree — I think a lot of guys could put up numbers in the Arizona offense. Anytime Sports Guy comes out and basically says, “There’s no question — Peyton Manning is the NFL MVP,” you have to give it some thought.

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That'll Be $40, Donovan

Alright, I’ll admit it: this hasn’t been the best of seasons. Despite chugging four Muscle Milks and sleeping for 17 hours the night before the draft, my team hasn’t performed up to anyone’s expectations. And that’s fine. After all, I’m not a sports fan — I’m an ath-lete. At least that’s what I tell my bosses at the bank when I show up to work at noon after sleeping in the morning after a big hockey game. Good thing they all work in Singapore.

Look, my team’s not making the playoffs or even finishing above .500. I realize this. But just like any fiscally responsible slickdealer, I’ve been doing everything in my power to stay out of the cellar and avoid having to pay the $40 fee that comes along with finishing in last place. At only a game behind the ninth place team, Full Retard, this was still a possibility.

My team, Lehman Brothers, got off to an explosive start yesterday, with 18 points from Warrick Dunn, 15 from Jason Campbell, and 27 from TO. Things looked on the up and up. That is, until Donovan F. McNabb took the field. For the sake of convenience, allow me to reproduce what McNabb’s Yahoo! player page has to say about his performance:

Nov 23 QB Donovan McNabb was benched at halftime Sunday and replaced by second-year man Kevin Kolb. McNabb has been playing poorly for the better part of a month now, and he completed just eight of 18 passes for 59 yards and threw two interceptions in the first half against the Ravens. In the Eagles' last five games, McNabb has a .526 completion percentage and has thrown six touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He's got seven turnovers (five interceptions, two lost fumbles) in the last two games alone.

Translation? -4 fantasy points. Instead of a sure victory, I’m heading into the Monday night game with only a 2 point lead…and Basketball on Grass still has Lance Moore yet to play.

That’ll be $40, McNabb, you asshole. Payable in cash or 50% off coupons for chunkysoup.com (YMMV).

- Cousin Bowser, Little Marianville, NY

In his rec hockey league season, Cousin Bowser has scored 10 goals on 359 shots with a plus-minus rating of -40. He has yet to record an assist.

Who Else Do People Hate?

- When Brandon Jacobs was surprisingly listed as inactive, I had the decision to make between Derrick Ward and Michael Turner. I figured the Giants were guaranteed to give Ward 20 carries and a TD, while Turner had struggled against Carolina previously. I decided to go with Ward and man is my ass sore this morning. Turner has to have the largest Beta of any back in the league. Fuck You to the Giants coaching staff, Jacobs, and Turner for even putting me in that position. And at least use some lubricant next time...

- Pierce M., New York, NY
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