The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

What a tough break for Michael J. Cox. By my calculation, I'm now up four games on my gambling nemesis, who for some reason volunteered to throw caution to the wind and take the other side of whatever bet I choose. What would drive him to something so reckless and foolhardy? Was he simply trying to take one for the team and incentivize me to make the best possible pick, and thus have RGIOQB put forth the best possible product? I don't know and frankly I don't really care, just as long as he shows up at the end of the season with that sweet green cheddar.

As the wins pile up, I grow bolder. I'm not interested in the easy swipe of Cox's cash. Any idiot can pick against the Bengals every week. No, I want Cox to wake up on Monday morning and think, "Damn, I never would've picked that game. I guess Marble is just plain better than me. Now I'm gonna need to do three passenger seat jack-off scenes a week just to pay him off." For Week 15, I have just the pick that's sure to get exactly that response.

Last week, the Cowboys and Giants both endured heart-wrenching losses. The Giants took us back to 2004 with a woeful performance against the Eagles, and though the 'Boys were leading the Steelers for virtually the entire second half, Dallas fans had their hearts ripped out as Pittsburgh scored two TDs in the last 5 minutes to steal the win. Now, the question is which one of these teams has the moxie to come back a week later, pick themselves off the mat and get that crucial W. I don't think I'm alone in observing that no one's got more moxie than the boys in blue. This is a gut check game, and probably the only situation in which you'll ever hear someone say that the rotund Wade Phillips does not have the requisite amount of gut. I like the Giants to win outright in Dallas, kill the Cowboys' playoff hopes, and easily cover the 3.5 points Vegas is handing them. Don't strain your wrist, Cox.

The Pick: New York (+3.5) over DALLAS

Season record: 7-5 (8-6 with Michael J. Cox's assistance)

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.
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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

The results speak for themselves: putting Michael J. Cox on the other side of my bets, regardless of whether he agrees with them or not, has taken the Lock to the level of brilliance we expected from the get go. Last week, even Cox himself had to nod his head in capitulation when I handed my loyal readers the lock of the millennium. I don't really know what Vegas was thinking taking points away from the Chargers against a streaking Colts team.

The result begs the question: is there a flaw in the picking system at RGIOQB.com? I mean, I can't help but feel bad for Cox, who's at quite a disadvantage stuck putting his money against the expert prognostications formulated at the Marble Institute. He's got no choices, no defenses, and no control. So, in the interest of fairness, I think we can experiment in Week 13 with a pick that might not be the most obvious choice; something that won't have Cox so worried that he can't get it up for the big scene in Butt Busters 17 he'll be filming on Saturday afternoon.

This weekend the Broncos will visit the Meadowlands, gasping for air and drawing a red hot Jets team. Cutler has looked very average over the past few weeks, and I think we can all agree that Denver's pathetic running back situation is likely to go to zero against the Jets improving run D. A Jets win won't be a surprise to anyone, although a Jets loss wouldn't be a surprise to Jets fans. I'm not a Jets fan, but Vegas and I are in agreement that the Broncos will head back to Denver with one more notch in the L column. However, let's not forget that this team is a likely division champion, and coach Shanahan no doubt has some tricks up his sleeve for this potential playoff preview.

Are you comfortable with the notion of a Jets win by more than a TD? 7.5 points sounds a little steep to me. Favre is due for a down game, and Cutler is due for a good one. Look for Thomas Jones to single handedly win the game despite Favre's best efforts to blow it. This game has the makings to be one of the most exciting of the season. I'm looking for the Jets to pull out the win in a shootout with lots of big plays and lots of mistakes. The Broncos might not be winning this week, but they are paying, so lock it up for an under the radar money maker.

The Pick: Denver +7.5 @ NEW YORK

Season record: 5-5 (6-6 with Michael J. Cox's assistance)

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.
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Cox Block: My Response to the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

Going with Indianapolis +2.5 at San Diego, Marble appears to have removed his head from his ass (at least for this week) and actually made a pick that makes sense. It's actually my favorite line of the week, so it's pretty hard for me to rip him for it. However, given the crazy nature of the NFL at this point, I really don't mind being on the other side of it at all.

So instead of my usual dose of Marble bashing, I’m going to share my thoughts on what's shaping up to be a very interesting MVP race. The argument has been made in the media this week that Peyton Manning should be this year's MVP, which I quite frankly just don't understand. He isn't at or even near the top of any of the major statistical categories and the Colts, while showing signs of life lately, haven't put together a great season up to this point. Manning has a lower QB rating this year than Chad Pennington, Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel, and is pretty comparable with his little brother, whose team is 9-1, stat wise. That's just not what I'm looking for from an MVP. In fact, if his last name wasn't Manning, I don't even think we'd be having this conversation.

As comical as it seems, my money is on Kurt Warner right now. His numbers are phenomenal and the team could realistically go 11-5 or better. I think his campaign ultimately comes down to this weekend. If the Cardinals can take down the Giants at home, which would clear their way for a potential 12-4 season, he's definitely the MVP. If he puts up a 2005 type performance with numerous turnovers and the game turns into a laugher, it's wide open. Since he holds the keys to both of my fantasy teams, let's hope it's not the latter...
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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

It's been a long hiatus for the Marble lock. Luckily, Michael J. Cox has been making his own disastrous picks while I've been gone, which has kept the money flowing in. While I spent three weeks at an undisclosed location rehabbing Tony Romo's pinky, Cox went a very unimpressive 1-1, which under our new system (link—do we have a post that explains the new system?) means that I was the proud owner of a tidy 67% winning percentage in absentia.

Now, I'm back in control and ready to reverse the horrible results I delivered while in the driver's seat. Lucky for you all, the muse has been generous to me this week, and I have several picks for those brave enough to come strong amidst a harrowing economic backdrop. Unfortunately, the rules state that Cox will only bet against one of my picks, so we'll start with the game I feel most comfortable with.

Since the bye, Indianapolis is a very quiet 5-2 and has averaged nearly 25 points per game. With the exception of the Giants and Titans, the Colts are arguably the hottest team in the lig right now. Moreover, it is without argument that Peyton Manning is the lig's hottest player, with 7 TDs and 0 picks over the past three weeks.

On Sunday, the Colts head into San Diego, home to one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Manning and Marble both smell blood. The line varies for this one, but my bookman is offering the Colts +2.5, and I'll happily take him up on that. If you can get the same, I suggest you pull the trigger, with the forecast in normally sunny San Diego calling for an overcast of Peyton Manning TD bombs all afternoon.

The Pick: Indianapolis -2.5 @ SAN DIEGO

If you've got some extra scratch, I also like the Pats (Even) to keep up the streak of not losing to the same team twice in Miami and the Redskins (-3) to steamroll the home Seahawks, whose coach has all but admitted he's playing for the #1 pick.

Season record: 4-5 (5-6 with Michael J. Cox's assistance)

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.
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The Michael J. Cox Lock of the Week

He's back, folks! This week, Marble Ryan has triumphantly returned to the lock-of-the-week stage in spectacular form, picking Dallas -1.5 (on the road!) over a team that they couldn't beat at home back in Week 4. That's right, Week 4, back when Tony Romo didn't have a broken finger on his throwing hand and their D wasn't banged up, suspended, just plain bad, etc.

This line opened at Cowboys +2 and moved a whopping 3.5 points over the course of the week, presumably on the news that Clinton Portis would not be playing. In my opinion, that sort of shift should be reserved for a QB going down, not a running back with a competent replacement. Plus, in light of his recent statements, can't you picture NBC zooming in on Jerry Jones on the sideline while Madden says something like, "Well you know Al, Jerry Jones guaranteed this week that the Cowboys would make the playoffs, but it sure is awful hard to make the playoffs when you don't win games..."? I sure can.

As for Marble, it's painfully obvious that he's chugging as much Tony Homo Kool-Aid as he can get his hands on in the wake of the comically terrible fantasy trade he made for him two weeks ago. But who am I to refuse his money? You're a charitable man, Marble Ryan, and I thank you for it.

Here are a few other plays I like, just in case you're not as charitable toward your bookie as Marble is to me.

- COLTS -8 over Texans
- BUCS -4 over Vikings
- Cardinals -3 over SEAHAWKS
- Eagles/Bengals to go over 41.5 points
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The Michael J. Cox Lock of the Week

With Marble Ryan fleeing to Mexico this week to evade his bookie, I’ll once again be taking the reins of the Lock of the Week and trying to help you get your own personal stimulus check from the NFL. Now I’m no Barack Obama, so don’t expect a free house or a $30 pre-paid Visa card, but I’ll still do my very best to help you out in these economically challenging times.

Let’s start with the bad news. Yes, we got hurt a little last week with the Titans non-cover win. It was one of those wonderful moments when you’re watching excited players hugging and high-fiving on the field as your watching on TV screaming, “What the fuck are you jerk-offs celebrating for?!?!?!?!?” All good things must come to an end, and I only hope that you were able to cash in on Tennessee before the streak ended.

With that in mind, I suppose we can go ahead and forgive the Titans for last week because they’re going to help us win it right back this week. Why’s that, you ask? Well look no further than the address bar of your Web browser, folks. Yep, the gambling event we’ve been waiting for all season: the return of our old friend Rextasy! And as if that’s not enough to make you reach for your wallet like Isiah Thomas for his bottle of Lunesta, he’s going against the best D in the league! After a half season on the bench, he’ll be well rested and ready to hit Titans defensive backs in stride all day long.

I’d love to give you some detailed stats, meaningful analysis or rock solid trends on this, but what else do you really need? If you can’t bring yourself to give three points away to Rex against the NFL’s best team, you should probably go ahead and delete your bookie’s phone number and start spending your Sundays perusing PotteryBarn.com.

The pick (home team in caps): Tennessee -3 over CHICAGO

Bonus picks:

• Giants +3 in Philly
• Giants/Eagles OVER 43

Prop alert:

• Rex is listed at +135 to go over 1.5 interceptions. Let’s think about this one for a second. Tennessee’s first priority is going to be stopping Matt Forte and the Chicago running game, right? That means Rex is going to have to go out there and win this one, and we know what that means — especially if Chicago gets down early. Take the over.

Loose change:

• The San Diego line (-15.5!) is absolutely crazy considering they’re 3-5. What’s even crazier is that I think they’re definitely covering it.
• Brady Quinn. I’d describe last night’s debut as “unimpressively impressive.” It’s unclear to me if the Browns chose not to throw downfield because they were trying to keep things simple for Quinn or if they just don’t think he has the artillery for it, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see. It’s obviously too soon to tell, but my gut feeling on him after last night’s performance is “game manager.”

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Cox Block: My Response to the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

So this week instead of reading Marble Ryan’s cute little write-up of his standard shitty pick – he’s currently too busy at work to find the worst betting game of the week for you – you’re getting a pick that actually has a shot at netting you some cash.

I feel somewhat reluctant to publish my reasoning for this pick. After all, Marble Ryan might get the idea to actually start looking up this sort of information before submitting the picks that I’m required to bet against. But in the spirit of wealth redistribution championed by our next president, I feel obliged to go ahead write it. So here goes.

TENNESSEE -5 over Green Bay


My reasoning, you ask? Pretty simple. Consider all of the Titans ATS trends in play this week from my friends at covers.com:

• Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

I left in the negative trends in just so I could point out that the last Monday night game that the Titans played was in 2004, so that last 0-5 — the only really alarming trend here — is put into perspective. You have to go back pretty far to find those 5 ATS losses. The only people picking based on the 3-7 trend are either monumentally desperate suicide poolers or guys with the first name Marble.

That said, only one of the positive trends really matters to me: Titans 7-0 ATS this season. Tell me this: when was the last time you saw someone successfully do something 7 times in a row and then bet against them doing it an 8th time?

Was it shooting free throws? Maybe picking up hot girls in a club? What about succumbing to heinous girls in an Upper East Side bar?

No, no and definitely no.

The answer is never. You never, NEVER, bet against this sort of trend until it has been broken. Betting trends are like great blow jobs – they always end – but until they do, you ride them out and treasure every moment.
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Cox Block: My Response to the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

With the glaring exception of the senior management of our major investment banks, poor performance is not rewarded in our society. The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week is on the ropes, people, so we’ve decided to bring on Michael J. Cox, one of RGIOQB’s other resident gamblers, to bet the other side of every one of Marble’s picks – and write a few sentences about how happy he is to do so.

This week, the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week was the Bucs (+2.5) on the road against the Cowboys, so MJC will be forced to bet the Cowboys (-2.5). Below, his feelings on the wager.

Any Joe Public who watched last week's games would have circled Bucs +2.5 over the Cowboys this week as a no-brainer. The Bucs looked so great at home against the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football last week that I was waiting for Cris Collinsworth to announce during the second half that he was pregnant with Jeff Garcia's baby and that they were planning a trip to Massachusetts during the bye week to make things official. Meanwhile, the Cowboys stunk out the joint on the road against a previously crappy but recently rejuvenated (yes, they're 2-0 under Haslett now) Rams team and Steven Jackson.

So it's no surprise that Marble's going in this direction. After all, he's Joe Public, the guy who gets routinely smoked by Vegas and then snuffed out in an ashtray at the McCarran Airport departure lounge.

I think there are three key differences between this Cowboys team and the Seahawks team that the Bucs trampled last week that you should take note of before considering such a wager:

1. The Cowboys are at home.
2. They don't employ Seneca Wallace and the worst collection of starting skill players in the NFL.
3. Jason Garrett isn't spending timeouts on the phone with his financial advisor trying to find out if he's still good to retire at the end of the year (see Holmgren, Mike). He's got a game under his belt with Brad Johnson now and has seen the limitations. Expect an offensive adjustment.

What was lost on Collinsworth, though probably not on Al Michaels, was that despite how the Bucs dominated the game, the Seahawks covered. In fact, they were within a TD of Tampa Bay with less than 5 minutes to go in the game. Are the Bucs really the kind of team you want to stake your cash on to cover as a road favorite against an above average team?

No, it isn't, but that's how they build big shiny casinos out in the Nevada desert – with blood, sweat, and dollars from guys like Marble Ryan. I'll take cash or check my man.
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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

A basic rule for novice stock traders is that when you think you've spotted a trend, you've probably arrived just in time for the end of it. That's how the experts make their piles of money: getting on the other side of the rookies who have completely missed the party. I suspect the same is true for NFL gambling, which is the only way I can explain my alarming futility over the past few weeks. Last week, my attempt to ride the wave was disastrous, as the briefly high flying Dolphins (my pick) seemingly stepped into a time machine before their game, in which they faced a Ravens team that looked like it was straight outta 2000. That's mud in my eye, I suppose, for being the dumb money.

Trouble is, sometimes the dumb money is the big money. And, there's a reason a trend can look just too tempting to pass up. I think I'll give it one more week before I start abiding the "opposite rule," which dictates that I examine my instincts and just go in the opposite direction – a strategy that worked wonders for George Costanza.

As for Week 8, though, two trends are calling my name. Trend #1: The Cowboys are a team in complete disarray, having started to decline even before Romo suffered an injury that makes him throw even more like a girl. Maybe Wade Philips hasn't lost the team, but he's definitely lost TO, who looks about ready to snap from the pain of less than 10 targets per game. Trend #2: The return of Jeff Garcia has revitalized the Bucs, who've won two straight in a very convincing fashion. Garcia may not have a big arm, but he knows how to pick apart a defense, especially a mediocre one, which is exactly what he'll be facing when the Ageless Wonders from Tampa roll into Dallas in Week 8. With my luck, this has "broken trend" written all over it, but I'm putting it all on the Bucs this week as road dogs against a Cowboys team that's gasping for air.

The pick (home team in caps): Tampa Bay +2.5 over DALLAS

Season record: 3-4

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.
Read more...

The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

I must apologize. In week 6, I made the hands down worst NFL pick in recent memory. Aspects of my reasoning for the pick ranged from marginally stupid ("San Diego has always been soft") to entirely deficient of logic ("Matt Cassel will take another step forward"), and at no point in my argument did I make an intelligent observation or prediction. After Cassel's pitiful four and out inside the San Diego 5 during the 2nd quarter, it became clear to me that I had made statements without actually knowing what I was talking about.

Cassel's performance essentially mandated picking against the Pats for the remainder of the season, and solidified what I suppose we already knew about Tom Brady but were too jealous to admit:: the man is the most valuable resource in this lig. But I'm not here to talk about the Pats, and I especially don't want to waste any more of my life thinking about the wealth destroying infection that is Matt Cassel. Marble Ryan is about to get back on track, but it's going to take a little extra effort.

Maybe it's my shattered ego talking, but the lines this week don't look all that appetizing. It's hard to remember a year in the NFL when the bad teams were as bad as they've been in 2008. Four teams (Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, and Cincinnati) have a legitimate shot at winning less than 2 games this year in an almost comedic fashion on a week to week basis. Two additional teams (Seattle and St. Louis) are considerably more talented than the Big Four, but they’ve had a run of hard luck that suggests there are forces at work against them more powerful than anything they can conjure themselves. As tempting as it is to pick these six dogs to go down every week, this is the NFL after all. We can't expect teams to be blown off the field every time out even if Vegas does.

Luckily, there's a 7th team in my crosshairs that for some reason appears to be getting the benefit of the doubt from the line makers despite being quite hopeless: The Baltimore Ravens. After somehow starting the season with a couple of ugly wins, the Ravens have rattled off three straight losses in which they've looked progressively worse. Week 6 showed us that the decision to start Joe Flacco is catching up with them. Given two straight weeks of complete offensive ineptitude, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Ravens score more than 14 points in a game for the rest of the year.

Baltimore is headed to Miami this week. Even though you can still count on the Ravens defense to be studly every season, the Dolphins unique offensive blend of risk aversion and weird trickery seems like a good matchup against the hyper-aggressive, roided-out Ravens. I like Miami come away with a comfy win on the order of 14-6, easily covering the puny 2.5 point spread. It won't be pretty, but if you're getting paid, it aint ugly either.

The pick (home team in caps): MIAMI (-2.5) over Baltimore

Season record: 3-3

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.
Read more...

The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

Don't look now, people, but through five glorious NFL Sundays, the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week is returning $1.34 for every $1.00 bet. Stuck at 2-2 heading into last week's games, the Lock needed a serious shot in the arm. That shot came last Sunday when, in one of the great performances in the history of gambling, the Colts defense stepped up HUGE, scoring one TD andg setting up another in the last four minutes of the freaking game to bring in both the cover and the over, sealing the parlay on which the Marble Ryan Retirement Account rested. BOOM! That two-for-one made for a few extra-special lunches this week, but now it's time to take it down a notch and be appropriately conservative within this tumultuous economic backdrop. That means no more risky parlays in the near term. Sorry folks, but the Lock is going back to basics in Week 6.

Through all the frenzy of last weekend, I was able to make one observation: I do not like what I'm seeing out of the Chargers. For starters, LT can't seem to get his toes right. Everyone else on that offense is so accustomed to being carried by the GOAT – that's right, Jim Brown has been officially put on the floor – that LT's startling ineffectiveness is really cracking their rhythm. Phil Rivers had a great start, but he's looked pretty crappy the past two weeks. Problems at home, maybe? I don't want to speculate, but being a 26-year-old millionaire with a wife belittling you and a rug rat throwing up in your car has to have a serious psychological impact.

The Chargers are a pretty talented team, but they've always been soft. The fact is, they lost last week to a team that won one game last year, and the week before that, they barely were able to beat a team whose coach was doing all he could to get canned. This week, they're giving 5.5 points to the visiting Pats, and I think they're going to run into more problems. Everyone remembers the offensive barrage New England dropped on the league last year, but I can't help but feel like all the long balls and Stetson commercials have led to the Pats falsely being labeled as a "finesse" team. Don't forget, Belichick became the most successful coach of this century by assembling the most grizzled, mean, dirty bunch of bastards he could find, which is precisely why New England has owned the Chargers over the past several years. If you're not cheating, you're not trying, and you're definitely not beating the Pats. I like Matt Cassel to take another step forward this Sunday and deliver a comfortable cover for New England bettors. As much as I hate Boston and everyone from there, this one is a little too enticing to pass up. Lock it up!

The pick (home team in caps): New England (+5.5) over SAN DIEGO

Season record: 3-2

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.
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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

As we all sit helplessly watching our 401Ks fall swiftly to zero, we should take solace in the one marketplace that still has rewards to shower over us: Vegas, baby! I must say, even with the Lock of the Week (as well as Wo Ai Beijing) at a relatively unimpressive 2-2, I'm enjoying this season immensely so far. Of course, my good cheer of late probably has to do with the fact that the Lock is coming off a positive result; should I fall to 2-3 against my bookman, you might find me slightly more concerned in next week's column over the fact that I, my family, and everyone in this country is going broke. And, if the two trades I made in the RGIOQB Lig don't work out for me, you probably won't find a column at all; the only thing on my computer will be an electronic receipt for the Anarchist's Cookbook and directions to Willis McGahee's house. For now, though, I'm feeling good and ready to lay a little parlay action right over your domes, people.

As a Peyton Manning owner, I've been as unimpressed as any with his play so far this year, and probably more so. I figured that after Brady's monster year in 2007, Manning would come back angry and ready to reclaim his title as the world's best quarterback. A knee surgery derailed this mission even before it started, however, causing him to miss the entire preseason and depriving him of his normal legendary level of preparation. I suspect that the Week 4 bye effectively solved that problem, though, and after two weeks of relentless studying and playing catch, Peyton is ready to start throwing TDs like there's no tomorrow.

Moreover, Houston's pathetic defense is the perfect rebound matchup, particularly when you consider that Manning's record against the Texans is somewhere in the region of 58-1. For the Colts to be favored by only 2.5 points – even in Houston – is a slap in the face from the football nerds in the desert and enough to make Manning, the third funniest man in the NFL behind Clinton Portis and Herm Edwards, temporarily forget his sense of humor. Take the Colts and that ridiculous 2.5 point line and tell the FDIC to keep their money for another week, as you've got a little extra scratch coming your way. And if you really want to get feisty, go ahead and take that 47 point over, too – Steve Slaton should run wild over the Colts with Bob Sanders out, and with Peyton looking for blood, that 47 could be dust by halftime.

The pick: Indianapolis -2.5 over HOUSTON and Over 47
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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

I'll be completely honest: watching the Cowboys roll all over my pick on Sunday night was a serious blow to my confidence. The loss cast a shadow over my whole week, and I couldn't help but feel like the AAA paper that was the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week had been reduced to junk status. So here we are, 1-2 and badly in need of a payday, because in the gambling world, unlike when we place our money with hopelessly mismanaged financial institutions, Hank Paulson ain't walkin' t'ru that door.

The end of the first quarter of the season is perhaps the toughest time to be a speculator; weeding out the early pretenders from the truly solid teams can be a tricky business. Conversely, one needs a highly refined football sense to distinguish the good teams that are simply off to bad starts from the real train wrecks.

As usual, heading into Week 4, we have more questions than answers: Is Texans QB Matt Schaub just knocking off the rust, or is he so upset about going bald at 27 that his game will never recover? Are the Bengals really starting to right the ship, or was last week's strong performance (and big time cover) yet another case of the Giants playing to the level of their opponent?

It appears as if the Vegas handicappers are trying to figure out the answers themselves, which leaves us with some interesting opportunities in the spread market. However, even with so many potential traps to fall into, I think I've found a convincing story to get behind.

The Titans take on the Vikes in Nashville this week, and I'm liking what Jeff Fisher is cooking up this year. Tennessee has proven to be one of the most hard-nosed, toughest, meanest teams in the lig this year and should prove to be a nice matchup for the burly Scandanavians. AD is the truth at running back, but judging by last week's performance, it looks like NFL defensive coordinators are figuring out how to stop an offense with exactly one skill position player who would start for any other professional team, including the Montreal Alouettes. Minny is good for no more than 10 points per game most weeks, and barring some kind of history-making performance from Peterson (which I admit is entirely possible), the Titans should easily cover the 2.5 points Vegas is taking from them.

On a side note, we love Kerry "Bottle Rocket" Collins at RGIOQB, and I would urge anyone that makes money off the Titans this week to donate a portion to your local non-profit rehab organization. You never know, someone in that clinic might one day throw four picks in the Super Bowl for your favorite team.

The pick: Tennessee (-2.5) over Minnesota

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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

Monday night's shootout between the Eagles and the Cowboys was arguably one of the most entertaining football games of the last five years. There were huge plays, several lead changes, tremendous individual performances and even brilliant coaching displays, with Jason Garrett anticipating Philly's half-time adjustments to T.O. and designing a second-half offensive scheme that didn't rely on his best player. That's some high –level counter-espionage right there.

But as impressive as the Cowboys offense looked in the Monday night shoot out, the defense was clearly exposed. Pacman "Adam" Jones looked rusty after a year of straight chillin', and, though you might think of Roy Williams' absence as a positive, backup safeties are generally the most unskilled labor within the NFL's economic structure. If rookie DeSean Jackson can have a monster day against this Cowboys defense, what do you think the Green Bay WR corps, which is one of the best in the lig, is going to be able to do? The Packers, 3-point dogs at home, are going to put on a fireworks display that will humiliate the people of Beijing and most likely lead to the execution of whoever designed the opening ceremony for the Olympics. Stick your head in a giant piece of foam cheese and lock up the Pack for an entertaining victory at home.

The pick: Green Bay (+3) vs. Dallas.
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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

Every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.

It was an inauspcious start to the 2008 season here at the Marble Ryan Lock of the Week headquarters. The 49ers, our pick for Week 1, turned in a stinker at home, putting up just 13 points against a mediocre Cardinals defense. Niners QB J.T. O'Sullivan did not deliver the kind of numbers we've come to expect from a QB in a Mike Martz offense, proving that even the Mad Scientist can't make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

Now, though, after a week of scouting I feel like I have my sea legs back, and I'm ready to start making some serious money. There’s a lot of opportunity on the board in Week 2. Oakland at Kansas City offers a match-up of arguably the two worst teams in the lig, always an intriguing proposition for a gambling man like myself. Denver as a home dog sounds sexy, too, especially considering the Chargers’ propensity for playing like crap the first month of every season (LT included – check the stats). But as tempting as these are, neither is really Lock of the Week material.

It’s early in the season and I’m still feeling frisky. This weekend, I’ve got my eye on Charlotte, where the Panthers will get a visit from a very feisty Bears club. Carolina has perfected the art of garbaajjery at home, going 2-6 there last season, and last Sunday night Chicago looked as real as real gets. Matt “All Day” Fo’tay is a star in the making, and the Bears have a long history of winning with the worst player on the team at QB.

Vegas is taking 3.5 points away from the Panthers, but I see them stumbling after an emotionally draining last-second win in Week 1. Lock up Da Bears to win outright with the season’s first Hester TD, more size in your face from Fo’tay, another injury to Jonathan Stewart, and 71 shots of Sexy Rexy on the sideline pretending to pay attention to the game but actually looking at porn hidden on his clipboard.

The pick: Chicago (+3.5) @ Carolina
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The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

The opportunity to reap huge profits on a weekly basis is one of the most appealing aspects of football and, let's be honest, the American Way of Life. That's why every Friday, Marble Ryan will offer up The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week, an under-the-radar, sure-fire NFL pick backed by his proprietary insight. But be forewarned: we in no way advise you to actually take this pick to your local bookkeeper; in fact, we recommend against it. After all, if you hear a cold metallic tap on your door late at night, we're not going to be there to bail you out. But if you want a peek into the pre-eminent football mind of an entire generation, look no further.

It's Week 1 of our 2008 NFL adventure, and the new season is like a pair of dice flying through the air towards a Vegas craps table as onlookers gasp, intoxicated with a combination of anxiety, excitement, fear, and greed. Surprise is the only guarantee, though, and with that in mind I've decided to take an inordinate risk to kick off the campaign.

The city of San Francisco will have a barn-burner on its hands when the high-flying Cardinals come to town this weekend to square off against the hometown Niners. New Niners offensive coordinator Mike Martz will feel right at home in the City by the Bay, as his brand of finesse football has always been homo-friendly (I recall Tedy Bruschi referring to the St. Louis Rams offense as "totally gay" at the media day before Super Bowl XXXVI). And just like Alexander the Great's unstoppable march to Asia, it's the gayness of Martz's attack that makes it so difficult to defense. If anyone can turn J.T. O'Sullivan into a viable QB it's Martz, who discovered Kurt Warner at a milk bottle toss stand at a county fair in rural Iowa and transformed the flat-topped journeyman into the greatest QB that the NFL has ever seen over a four-year period.

As for the Cardinals, the song remains the same. Just like every summer dating back to 2004, there's been a lot of talk about how they're primed for a playoff run, but deep down, we all know they still suck. Arizona's sieve of a defense has no answer for the revamped Niners playbook, so lock up the home doggies to win outright at Candlestick this Sunday and enjoy the fireworks.

San Francisco +2.5 vs. Arizona
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