Draft 2008: Love and Hate, Part 3

Love: Jeremy Shockey, TE New Orleans Saints

This one’s tough for me to admit, because I’ve never really cared for Shockey or even taken him that seriously. The guy spikes the ball after routine first down catches, dropped passes in the clutch, and did his best to kill Eli Manning’s confidence, which is kind of like going up to the homeless guy on your street every day and shaking him down for spare change. Let’s also not forget this hilarious incident, in which Shockey prematurely celebrated what looked to be a game-winning field goal for the Giants…only to change his expression as the kick sailed wide left. When the Giants announced last season that they were not going to grant Shockey permission to be on the field at the Super Bowl, I knew that those “19-0” shirts would end up in the hands of a bunch of kids living in huts in South America.

Still, how do you not love Shockey this year? He’s playing for a team that spent their entire offseason trying to figure out a way to trade for him—you don’t think they’re going to look for him in the red zone? And, poo stain on his cheek aside, Drew Brees knows a little something about getting the ball to the TE—he’s a big part of the reason why Antonio Gates became so successful. I predict a torn meniscus by Week 12, but by then he’ll have already matched his career high in TDs (7).

Hate: Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots

Okay, hate is a relative term here. There’s no question that Brady will be the top fantasy QB this year (or close to it), but anyone expecting him to throw for 50 TDs and 4,800 yards again is going to be sorely disappointed. The year after Peyton Manning threw for 49 TDs, he threw 29. The year after LT scored 31 TDs, he scored 18. The year after Mike Vick threw for almost 2,500 yards and ran for an additional 1,000, he went to prison. Sense a pattern here?

The Pats just won’t be able to duplicate last season’s intergalactic passing totals. After the loss to the Giants, the Pats are going to be wary of falling into the old Colts pattern of running up the score on crappy teams during the regular season only to lose in the playoffs (which Bill Simmons mocked them for in every NFL column he published from 2000-2004). Expect Brady’s TD total to be in the low 30s—good enough for you to make him the top QB on your draft board but not enough for you to pass up a stud RB in round 1 to get him.

Sleeper Love: Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee Titans

He’ll get off to a hot start, racking up some long TD runs in the first few weeks of the season before suffering a minor injury around Week 5 that will hamper his production for the rest of the season. Play him at the flex early but trade him at the peak of his value.

Sleeper Hate: Robert Meachem, WR New Orleans Saints

The next Ashley Lelie. Sure, he’s looked good in the preseason, but word on the street is that he can only run the go route. Next.

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Draft 2008: Love and Hate, Part 2

Love: Thomas Jones, RB New York Jets

The Jets offense was bad last year. Watching them play felt something like what Steve Carrell experienced during the filming of that body wax scene from The 40 Year Old Virgin. But now it’s another 40-year-old who will give the Jets offense a Beyonce-level upgrade. Replacing Pennington and Clemens with Brett Favre is like going from Amy Winehouse to Catherine Zeta-Jones. CZJ is probably not at her peak, but she’s still a hell of a lot more appealing than the younger option. And you can think of the O-line retooling as some nice tight pants to accentuate the ass that ducked under those laser beams in Entrapment. But the real winner in all of this is Thomas Jones. I figure that at least an improvement over last season’s touchdown count (1) is a given, and TJ’s yardage will improve because they’ll be a better team and will be running the ball more often in the second half. If he offered you 1,300 yards and 8 TDs, is that something you’d be interested in?

Hate: Antonio Gates, TE San Diego Chargers

You’re in college and you walk into a party. You look around the room and see plenty of cute girls, but one stands out. She has a great face, a low-cut top that puts some size in your face, and some nice stems. Of course, she’s surrounded by guys, and you’re left to wonder how you could even get close enough to talk to her.

So you start asking some of your friends about her. You find out that she’s coming off back surgery and wears a metal brace underneath her shirt. The boobs that look so great with all the support look more like flapjacks when they’re allowed to roam free. And that tube of moisturizer she carries in her purse is actually used to treat those cold sores that pop up every few months.

That’s Antonio Gates. He’s coming off toe surgery and now he finally has a #1 WR (Chris Chambers) to compete with for touches. It’s doubtful that he’ll ever reach 13 TDs or 1,000 yards receiving again. Do yourself a favor and wait till later in the draft to pick up your TE—there are bargains to be had. They might not stop traffic at first glance like Gates, but they’re productive and STD-free. Plus, by avoiding Gates you can use your 4th round pick to strengthen your receiving corps or pick up that 3rd RB for the flex.

Sleeper Love: Rashard Mendenhall
Good offense + goal line carries = sleeper stud.

Sleeper Hate: Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee Titans
See Henry, Chris.
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Draft 2008: Love and Hate, Part 1

Love: Larry Johnson, RB Kansas City Chiefs

In the fall of 2005, Britney Spears ruined the life of her son Sean Preston by giving birth to him, a movie about closeted gay cowboys ruffled some feathers, and Larry Johnson ran roughshod all over the league, putting up 16 games’ worth of yardage and TDs in just half a season. In 2006, LJ recorded the league’s first ever 100,000 carry season under an offensive scheme that made Woody Hayes’s old game plans look like the stuff of Air Coryell. The effects were as visible as they were predictable: LJ slogged through a brutal season (in which he didn’t have a single great game) before being sidelined with an injury. One of the most promising talents in the NFL has become a 2nd round pick.

But I just can't stop thinking about 2005: the Pat O'Brien voicemails, that runaway bride with the crazy eyes, and Larry Johnson running through defenses with no regard for human life. The past is now the future, and the only way not to get burned by LJ this year is to draft him in Round 1.

Hate: Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota Vikings

I won't beat around the bush; it's personal between me and AD. In Week 6 of last season, I squared off against Mr. T, who had AD on his roster. AD torched both me and the Bears with a bruising 226 yard, 3 TD performance. Flustered by what happened, I decided to trade for him, offering up Carson Palmer and Kellen Winslow. In Weeks 7 and 8, he notched two unimpressive performances, rushing for a total of 130 yards and 1 TD. So I did what any guy afraid of commitment would’ve done: I dumped his ass, sending him to Torry Hallelujah for Travis Henry, Selvin “Slim at the Waist” Young, and Donald Driver. By doing so, I broke a very important fantasy rule: never trade a player to the team you’re about to play. Three days after the trade went through, AD redefined how we think of athletic achievement with a 296 yard, 3 TD fantasy explosion.

That game single-handedly sent me into a depression that lasted nearly four months. At times, my loved ones weren’t sure that I’d ever recover. Nine months later, I’m back to my old self and can finally think objectively about the man known as “All Day.” What I’ve come to is this: his injury history combined with the fact that his team’s passing game will be led by the poor man’s Shaun King, Tavaris Jackson, render all of the talk about him being the #1 pick totally preposterous. He’ll have big games, sure, but he doesn’t belong with the guys who’ve done it before (LT, Westbrook) or the ones who have a more talented supporting cast (Addai, Tom Brady). The bottom line is that AD is a #1 talent who will likely have a #6 season.

Sleeper Love: Chris Perry, RB Cincinnati Bengals

A Tiki Barber-type run/catch talent who could reenergize a Cincy offense that looked very pedestrian at times last season. Rudi Johnson is on his way out the door, and Kenny Watson is the next Nick Goings—one good year of spot duty, never to be heard from again.

Sleeper Hate: Ricky Williams, RB Miami Dolphins

C'mon, you've got to be kidding me. Ronnie Brown is a freak of nature and will be 100% healthy by the start of the season. And if you're picking Williams because you think he's left the ganja behind, well, you don't know anything about football or ganja.


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